Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle
This article demonstrates that recessions typically are followed by high-growth recovery phases that push output back to its prerecession level. Thus, postwar fluctuations in real output in the United States have consisted of three sequential phases rather than two-contractions, high-growth recoveries, and moderate-growth periods following recoveries. Data from before World War II also exhibit this pattern. For the postwar period, the three-phase pattern is shown to reflect swings in inventory investment and suggests that output fluctuations have an important transitory component. The evidence in this article supports B. DeLong and L. Summers's (1988) output-gaps view and M. Friedman's (1993) 'plucking' model view of fluctuations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgwe:128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.