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Citations for "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle"

by Daniel E. Sichel

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  1. Eisinga, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1997. "Timing of Vote Decision in First and Second Order Dutch Elections 1978-1995: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9733/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  4. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
  6. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  8. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
  9. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  10. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Der erste Schwung ist vorüber," RWI Konjunkturberichte, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), vol. 61(2), pages 5-36.
  11. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Kannan, Prakash, 2012. "Credit conditions and recoveries from financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 930-947.
  13. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  14. James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-component decompositions of GDP so Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  15. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  16. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  17. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2009. "High-growth Recoveries, Inventories and the Great Moderation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0917, Banco de Espa�a.
  18. Clarida, Richard H. & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Nonlinear Permanent -Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 51, Royal Economic Society.
  19. Darrel Cohen, 2000. "A quantitative defense of stabilization policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  21. Julien Allard & Rodolphe Blavy, 2011. "Market Phoenixes and Banking Ducks Are Recoveries Faster in Market-Based Financial Systems?," IMF Working Papers 11/213, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 266, Society for Computational Economics.
  23. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2014. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand's Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  24. Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-006, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  26. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
  27. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Marie Adanero-Donderis, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
  28. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  29. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/20, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  30. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?," IMF Working Papers 11/88, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Working Papers 0021, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  34. Anders Rygh Swensen, 1997. "Change in Regime and Markov Models," Discussion Papers 204, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  35. Adrian Pagan, 1999. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," CEPR Discussion Papers 412, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  36. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002.
  37. Pierre Villa, 1999. "Cycles de la production industrielle : une analyse historique dans le domaine des fréquences," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 95-108.
  38. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  39. Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "The European way out of recession," Working papers 360, Banque de France.
  40. Bec, F. & Bessec, M., 2012. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Working papers 400, Banque de France.
  41. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  42. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
  43. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Trend and Cycles: A New Approach and Explanations of Some Old Puzzles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 252, Society for Computational Economics.
  44. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "The business cycle in a financially deregulated context: Theory and evidence," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287.
  45. José Cancelo & Estefanía Mourelle, 2005. "Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in GDP: International Evidence," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 297-309, September.
  46. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
  47. Jens Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2010. "The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  48. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-154/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Nov 2011.
  49. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  50. Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  52. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September.
  53. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47, October.
  54. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  55. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
  56. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001. "Markov regime switching and unit root tests," Working Papers 2001-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  57. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "A Comparison of Alternative Asymptotic Frameworks to Analyze a Structural Change in a Linear Time Trend," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-030, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  58. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
  59. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  60. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
  61. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
  62. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  63. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  64. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, 02.
  65. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  66. Caballero, R-J & Hammour, M-L, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Specificity," Working papers 96-25, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  67. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA.
  68. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, EconWPA.
  69. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, 06.
  70. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  71. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Der erste Schwung ist vorüber," RWI Konjunkturberichte, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), vol. 61(2), pages 5-36.
  72. Hess, Gregory D. & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 535-554, December.
  73. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
  74. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
  75. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-154.
  76. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
  77. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  78. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  79. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  80. Corinne Perraudin, 1995. "La dynamique asymétrique de l'emploi au cours du cycle," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 120(4), pages 121-139.
  81. Bellone, B. & Gautier, E. & Le Coent, S., 2005. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?," Working papers 128, Banque de France.
  82. Andrew Figura, 2002. "The cyclical behavior of short-term and long-term job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  83. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo & Blazquez, Cristina, 2001. "A growth cycle characterisation and forecasting of the Spanish economy: 1970-1998," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 517-532.
  84. Hong, Kiseok & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2012. "Crises in Asia: Recovery and policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 654-668.
  85. M Cruz, 2003. "The Business Cycle in a Financially Deregulated Context: Theory and Evidence," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0331, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  86. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997. "A floor and ceiling model of US output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
  87. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
  88. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  89. Mark A. Wynne & Nathan S. Balke, 1993. "Recessions and recoveries," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1-17.
  90. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  91. Heilemann, Ullrich & Münch, Heinz Josef, 2005. "The Clinton era and the U.S. business cycle : what did change?," Technical Reports 2005,12, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  92. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402.
  93. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
  94. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
  95. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  96. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  97. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
  98. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  99. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries From Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
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