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Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression

  • Clements, M.P.
  • Krolzig, H-M.

We propose testing for business cycle asymmetries in Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) models. We derive the parametric restrictions on MS-AR models that rule out types of asymmetries such as deepness, steepness, and sharpness, and set out a testing procedure based on Wald statistics which have standard asymptotic. For a two-regime model, such as that popularized by Hamilton (1989), we show that deepness implies sharpness (and vice versa) while the process is always non-steep. We illustrate with two and three-state MS models of US GNP growth, and with models of US output and employment. Our findings are compared with those obtained from standard non-parametric tests.

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Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 522.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:522
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  8. Gregory D. Hess & Shigeru Iwata, 1997. "Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth," Research Working Paper 97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
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  13. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 442-60, Special I.
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  17. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
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  20. Boldin Michael D., 1996. "A Check on the Robustness of Hamilton's Markov Switching Model Approach to the Economic Analysis of the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, April.
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  25. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
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