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Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends and Business Cycle Turning Points


  • GORDON, Stephen



This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifications for business cycle dynamics. In an application to US GDP, it is found that inferences about the nature of the trend in output are not robust to changes in the specification for short-run fluctuations. Similarly, the choice of which model best describes the transitory movements in output depends on the way in which the trend is specified. The empirical analysis makes use of Bayesian methods to compare non-nested models for US GDP. Inspection of the predictive likelihoods for the individual data points suggests that the information contained in the data is largely limited to the observations associated with business cycle turning points.

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  • GORDON, Stephen, 1995. "Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends and Business Cycle Turning Points," Cahiers de recherche 9503, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:9503

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    1. Robin Boadway & Nicolas Marceau, 1994. "Time inconsistency as a rationale for public unemployment insurance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 1(2), pages 107-126, October.
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    3. Boadway, Robin W & Wildasin, David E, 1990. "Optimal Tax-Subsidy Policies for Industrial Adjustment to Uncertain Shocks," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 105-134, January.
    4. Rogers, Carol Ann, 1987. "Expenditure taxes, income taxes, and time-inconsistency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 215-230, March.
    5. Flam, Harry & Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "Optimal subsidies to declining industries : Efficiency and equity considerations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 327-345, December.
    6. Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Dynamic inconsistency, cooperation and the benevolent dissembling government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 93-107, May.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    4. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.

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