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Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia

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  • Peter Hördahl
  • David Vestin

Abstract

This paper examines differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs, are used as indicators of actual beliefs of investors. We employ a multi-factor essentially affine modeling framework applied to German time-series and cross-section term structure data in order to identify both the risk-neutral and the objective term structure dynamics. We find important differences between risk-neutral and objective distributions due to risk premia in bond prices. Moreover, the estimated premia vary over time in a quantitatively significant way, which implies that the differences between the objective and the risk-neutral distributions also vary over time. We therefore conclude that one should be cautious in interpreting RNDs in terms of expectations. The method used in this paper provides an alternative approach to identifying objective probabilities of future interest rates.

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  • Peter Hördahl & David Vestin, 2005. "Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:9:y:2005:i:1:p:97-137.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10679-005-2989-7
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    3. Ma, Zong-Gang & Ma, Chao-Qun, 2013. "Pricing catastrophe risk bonds: A mixed approximation method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-254.
    4. Peter Hördahl & David Vestin, 2005. "Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-137.
    5. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Individual investors and suboptimal early exercises in the fixed-income market," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 14, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    6. Guillermo Benavides Perales & Israel Felipe Mora Cuevas, 2008. "Parametric vs. non-parametric methods for estimating option implied risk-neutral densities: the case of the exchange rate Mexican peso – US dollar," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 33-52, May.
    7. Bagnara, Matteo & Jappelli, Ruggero, 2022. "Liquidity derivatives," SAFE Working Paper Series 358, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Nov), pages 543-562.
    9. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Zero bound, option-implied PDFs, and term structure models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Schmitz, Jochen & Ledebur, Oliver von, 2012. "The 2007 emerging corn price surge revisited – Was it expected or a large surprise?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 123971, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2018. "What makes individual investors exercise early? Empirical evidence from non-tradable fixed-income products," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 318-334.

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    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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