IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality

Listed author(s):
  • Qiang Dai
  • Kenneth Singleton

This article is a critical survey of models designed for pricing fixed-income securities and their associated term structures of market yields. Our primary focus is on the interplay between the theoretical specification of dynamic term structure models and their empirical fit to historical changes in the shapes of yield curves. We begin by overviewing the dynamic term structure models that have been fit to treasury or swap yield curves and in which the risk factors follow diffusions, jump-diffusion, or have "switching regimes." Then the goodness-of-fit of these models is assessed relative to their abilities to (i) match linear projections of changes in yields onto the slope of the yield curve; (ii) match the persistence of conditional volatilities, and the shapes of term structures of unconditional volatilities, of yields; and (iii) to reliably price caps, swaptions, and other fixed-income derivatives. For the case of defaultable securities we explore the relative fits to historical yield spreads. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhg010
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 16 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 631-678

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:3:p:631-678
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.

Fax: 919-677-1714
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www4.oup.co.uk/revfin/subinfo/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window

  1. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Term premiums in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 529-546, December.
  3. Farshid Jamshidian, 1997. "LIBOR and swap market models and measures (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 293-330.
  4. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Arbitrage Opportunities in Arbitrage-Free Models of Bond Pricing," Working Papers 94-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
  6. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1997. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 6128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Dittmar, Robert F. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Gao, Bin, 2003. "Purebred or hybrid?: Reproducing the volatility in term structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 147-180.
  8. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
  9. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
  12. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
  13. Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Asset Pricing Under The Quadratic Class," Finance 0207015, EconWPA.
  14. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
  15. Carrasco, Marine & Chernov, Mikhaël & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Ghysels, Eric, 2000. "Efficient Estimation of Jump Diffusions and General Dynamic Models with a Continuum of Moment Conditions," IDEI Working Papers 116, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2002.
  16. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  17. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
  18. Anderson, Ronald W & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 37-68.
  19. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
  20. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993. "Strategic Debt Service," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
  22. Driessen, J.J.A.G. & Melenberg, B. & Nijman, T.E., 2000. "Common Factors in International Bond Returns," Discussion Paper 2000-91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  23. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
  24. Miltersen, K. & K. Sandmann & D. Sondermann, 1994. "Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Serie B 308, University of Bonn, Germany.
  25. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  26. Brito, R. & Flores, R., 2001. "A Jump Difusion Yield Factor Model of Interest Rate," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_37, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  27. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
  28. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort & Vassilis Polimenis, 2002. "Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 2002-49, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  29. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 555-580, December.
  30. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
  31. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
  32. Klaus Sandmann & Dieter Sondermann, 1997. "A Note on the Stability of Lognormal Interest Rate Models and the Pricing of Eurodollar Futures," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-125.
  33. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
  34. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Quadratic Term Structure Models: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 243-288, March.
  35. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1997. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor in Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 6325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous-Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, 08.
  37. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  38. Kenneth J. Singleton & Len Umantsev, 2002. "Pricing Coupon-Bond Options And Swaptions In Affine Term Structure Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 427-446.
  39. Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
  40. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, 08.
  41. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2005. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  42. Kugler, Peter, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Reaction and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 217-224, July.
  43. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
  44. Reneby, Joel & Ericsson, Jan, 2001. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Tests," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 445, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2002.
  45. Singleton, Kenneth J., 2001. "Estimation of affine asset pricing models using the empirical characteristic function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 111-141, May.
  46. George Chacko, 2002. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 195-241, March.
  47. Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Design and Estimation of Quadratic Term Structure Models," Finance 0207014, EconWPA.
  48. Driessen, Joost & Klaassen, Pieter & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2003. "The Performance of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Pricing and Hedging Caps and Swaptions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(03), pages 635-672, September.
  49. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen, 1995. "Default Risk Insurance And Incomplete Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 187-195.
  50. Hao Zhou, 2001. "Jump-diffusion term structure and Ito conditional moment generator," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
  52. Sun, Tong-sheng, 1992. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates: A Discrete-Time Model and Its Continuous-Time Limit," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 581-611.
  53. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:16:y:2003:i:3:p:631-678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.