IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7609.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expectations Hypotheses Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Geert Bekaert
  • Robert J. Hodrick

Abstract

We investigate the Expectations Hypotheses of the term structure of interest rates and of the foreign exchange market using vector autoregressive methods for the U.S. dollar, Deutsche mark, and British pound interest rates and exchange rates. In addition to standard Wald tests, we formulate Lagrange Multiplier and Distance Metric tests which require estimation under the non-linear constraints of the null hypotheses. Estimation under the null is achieved by iterating on approximate solutions that require only matrix inversions. We use a bias-corrected, constrained vector autoregression as a data generating process and construct extensive Monte Carlo simulations of the various test statistics under the null hypotheses. Wald tests suffer from severe size distortions and use of the asymptotic critical values results in gross over-rejection of the null. The Lagrange Multiplier tests slightly under-reject the null, and the Distance Metric tests over-reject. Use of the small sample distributions of the different tests leads to a common interpretation of the validity of the Expectations Hypotheses. The evidence against the Expectations Hypotheses for these interest rates and exchange rates is much less strong than under asymptotic inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7609 Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7609.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin S, 1996. "Small-Sample Properties of GMM-Based Wald Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 294-308, July.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    5. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
    6. Politis, D. N. & Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 1997. "Subsampling for heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 281-317, December.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 213-237.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    11. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.