IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

  • Lucio Sarno
  • Giorgio Valente
  • Hyginus Leon

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research. Copyright Oxford University Press Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10679-006-9001-z
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by European Finance Association in its journal Review of Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 443-482

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:443-482
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK

Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://rof.oxfordjournals.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1982. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  4. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  5. Gabriele Galati & Michael Melvin, 2004. "Why has FX trading surged?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  6. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hollifield, Burton & Uppal, Raman, 1997. " An Examination of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in Segmented International Commodity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2145-70, December.
  8. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
  9. Giorgio Valente & Mark Taylor & Lucio Sarno & Richard Clarida, 2004. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers wp04-13, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  10. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  11. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546.
  13. Neal, Robert, 1996. "Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 541-562, December.
  14. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  15. repec:lan:wpaper:3217 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  17. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x.
  18. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 6.
  19. Sercu, Piet & Vandebroek, Martina, 2005. "What UIP tests on extreme samples reveal about the missing variable," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1237-1260, December.
  20. Skalin, Joakim, 1998. "Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregression using a parametric bootstrap," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 276, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 1998.
  21. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "Portfolio Advice for a Multifactor World," NBER Working Papers 7170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
  24. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  25. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  26. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-26, December.
  27. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-52, November.
  30. David A. Peel & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2005. "Smooth Transition Models and Arbitrage Consistency," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(3), pages 413-430, 08.
  31. repec:lan:wpaper:3313 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Bekaert, Geert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 427-70.
  33. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
  34. Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-Quality Data Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(216), pages 429-38, November.
  35. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
  36. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Jun Liu, 2004. "Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 611-641.
  38. Scott Barnhart & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2002. "Some answers to puzzles in testing unbiasedness in the foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 687-696.
  39. William P. Osterberg, 2000. "New results on the rationality of survey measures of exchange-rate expectations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 14-21.
  40. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Grossman, Sanford & Weiss, Laurence, 1983. "A Transactions-Based Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 871-80, December.
  42. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  43. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  44. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, October.
  45. John F. O. Bilson, 1980. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Clive Granger & Tae-Hwy Lee, 1999. "The effect of aggregation on nonlinearity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 259-269.
  49. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests: Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," CEPR Discussion Papers 407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  50. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics; A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  51. repec:lan:wpaper:3215 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
  53. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  54. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
  55. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August.
  56. David Hirshleifer, 1988. "Residual Risk, Trading Costs, and Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 173-193.
  57. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
  58. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
  59. repec:lan:wpaper:3583 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
  61. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  62. Barnhart, Scott W. & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1999. "Non-Informative Tests of the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 265-291, June.
  63. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  64. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:443-482. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.