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Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

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  • Lucio Sarno
  • Giorgio Valente
  • Hyginus Leon

Abstract

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research. Copyright Oxford University Press Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:443-482 DOI: 10.1007/s10679-006-9001-z
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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