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The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests

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  • Alex Maynard

Abstract

Recent literature has questioned statistical inference in predictive regressi on with persistent regressors, suggesting a possible explanation for puzzles suc h as the forward premium anomaly. We therefore revisit this puzzle using three a lternative econometric methods known to provide reliable inference in the presen ce of persistent conditioning variables. While they provide less evidence agains t forward rate unbiasedness than traditional predictive regression tests, we sti ll reject using at least one method for all six currencies. Thus, while the econ ometric problems inherent in predictive regression likely play a role in this an omaly, we are left with an economic puzzle even after accounting for their influence.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:39:y:2006:i:4:p:1244-1281
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    Cited by:

    1. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    2. Bauer, Dietmar & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Persistence-robust surplus-lag Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 293-300.
    3. D. (Derek) Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. (Edward Joseph) O'Brien, 2009. "Exploring long memory and nonlinearity in Irish real exchange Rates using tests based on semiparametric estimation," Working Papers 200901, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    5. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    6. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    7. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
    8. Dietmar Bauer & Alex Maynard, 2010. "Persistence-robust Granger causality testing," Working Papers 1011, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2009. "Covariance-Based Orthogonality Tests For Regressors With Unknown Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 63-116, February.
    10. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    11. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    12. Derek Bond & Michael Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward O'Brien, 2010. "Nonlinearity as an explanation of the forward exchange rate anomaly," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1237-1239.
    13. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 361-384 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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