The Long and the Short of It: Long Memory Regressors and Predictive Regressions
Persistent regressors pose a common problem in predictive regressions. Tests of the forward rate unbiased hypothesis (FRUH) constitute a prime example. Standard regression tests that strongly reject FRUH have been questioned on the grounds of potential long-memory in the forward premium. Researchers have argued that this could create a regression imbalance thereby invalidating standard statistical inference. To address this concern we employ a two-step procedure that rebalances the predictive equation, while still permitting us to impose the null of FRUH. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study to validate our procedure. The simulations demonstrate the good small sample performance of our two-stage procedure, and its robustness to possible errors in the first stage estimation of the memory parameter. By contrast, the simulations for standard regression tests show the potential for significant size distortion, validating the concerns of previous researchers. Our empirical application to excess returns, suggests less evidence against FRUH than found using the standard, but possibly questionable, t-tests.
|Date of creation:||11 Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://comp-econ.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration," Economics Discussion Papers 535, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993.
"The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium,"
9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Katsumi Shimotsu & Alex Maynard, 2004.
"Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
536, Econometric Society.
- Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2009. "Covariance-Based Orthogonality Tests For Regressors With Unknown Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 63-116, February.
- Katsumi Shimotsu & Alex Maynard, 2004. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 518, Econometric Society.
- Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Working Papers 1122, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002.
"Nonlinear Log-Periodogram Regression for Perturbed Fractional Processes,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1366, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sun, Yixiao & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2003. "Nonlinear log-periodogram regression for perturbed fractional processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 355-389, August.
- Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
- Newey, Whitney K. & McFadden, Daniel, 1986. "Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 36, pages 2111-2245 Elsevier.
- Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
- Morten �rregaard Nielsen & Per Houmann Frederiksen, 2005.
"Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 405-443.
- Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration," Working Papers 1189, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Geert Bekaert, 2001.
"Expectations Hypotheses Tests,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
- Chung, Ching-Fan & Baillie, Richard T, 1993. "Small Sample Bias in Conditional Sum-of-Squares Estimators of Fractionally Integrated ARMA Models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 791-806.
- Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999.
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
- Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997.
"Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-73, February.
- Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985.
"Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Properties of Tests of Rational Expectations Models,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
- C. Ennew, & N. Kellard, & P. Newbold, A. J. Rayner & M. E. Wohar,, .
"Two Puzzles in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency,"
96/18, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
- Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
- Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2000.
"A Bias-Reduced Log-Periodogram Regression Estimator for the Long-Memory Parameter,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1263, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Donald W. K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2003. "A Bias--Reduced Log--Periodogram Regression Estimator for the Long--Memory Parameter," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 675-712, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Alex Maynard, 2003. "Testing for Forward-Rate Unbiasedness: On Regression in Levels and in Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 313-327, May.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
- Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.