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Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly

Listed author(s):
  • Alex Maynard

    (Department of Economics, University of Toronto, Canada)

  • Peter C. B. Phillips

    (Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, USA)

Using both semiparametric and parametric estimation methods, this paper corroborates earlier findings of fractionally integrated behaviour in the forward premium. Two new explanations are also proposed to help reconcile earlier conflicting empirical evidence on the time series properties of the forward premium. Traditional regression approaches used to test the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis are then evaluated, including regression in levels, in returns (Fama's, 1984, regression), and in error-correction format. Interesting statistical and|or interpretive implications are found in all three cases. For example, the predictions of the appropriate nonstandard limit theory are consistent with many of the standard empirical results reported from Fama's regression, including the commonly occurring, yet puzzling negative correlations between spot returns and the forward premium. It is suggested that the principal failure of unbiasedness, may be due instead to the difference in persistence between these two series. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 671-708

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:6:p:671-708
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  1. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-129, April.
  2. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  3. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastibility of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," NBER Working Papers 4442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. C. Ennew, & N. Kellard, & P. Newbold, A. J. Rayner & M. E. Wohar,, "undated". "Two Puzzles in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Discussion Papers 96/18, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
  7. Phillips, P.C.B., 1989. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 181-240, August.
  8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
  9. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
  10. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-734, Nov.-Dec..
  11. Lewis, K.K., 1994. "Puzzles in international Financial Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 94-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  12. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:4:p:489-500 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
  15. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  16. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Crowder, William J, 1994. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and common stochastic trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 551-564, October.
  19. Clinton, Kevin, 1988. "Transactions Costs and Covered Interest Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 358-370, April.
  20. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
  21. Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  23. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  24. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  25. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
  26. Crowder, William J., 1995. "Covered interest parity and international capital market efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-132.
  27. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 489-500, December.
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