Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Co-Integration, and Stochastic Coefficients
In this paper, we demonstrate that the conflicting results found in the literature of tests of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) depend upon the econometric specification used as well as differences in the time period of estimation. It is established that the time series properties of spot and forward exchange rate data rule out certain econometric specifications used to test the UFRH. Specifically, we find that both spot and forward exchange rates for the U.K., Germany, Japan, and Canada have unit roots and are cointegrated. We also find that the co-integrating parameter in the regression of realized spot on forward rates for each currency is approximately one, implying that researchers who use this specification to test the UFRH may falsely accept the hypothesis simply because of the specification used in the test. Using an alternative error correction specification, we find that the UFRH is resoundingly rejected for all currencies and that the coefficients in this specification exhibit temporal instability. More importantly, we find that the evolution of the estimated parameters is becoming increasingly inconsistent with the UFRH with the passage of time. We conclude the paper with an investigation into potential causes for the gross violation of the UFRH.
Volume (Year): 26 (1991)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_JFQ
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:26:y:1991:i:02:p:245-267_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.