IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cem/jaecon/v7y2004n2p325-353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing forward exchange rate unbiasedness efficiently: a semiparametric approach

Author

Abstract

We apply semiparametric efficient estimation procedures for a seemingly unrelated regression model where the multivariate error density is elliptically symmetric to study the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. We consider both cointegrating regressions and standard stationary regressions. The elliptical symmetry assumption allows us to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem that typically arises in multivariate semiparametric estimation procedures, because the multivariate elliptically symmetric density function can be written as a function of a scalar transformation of the observed multivariate data. We test the unbiasedness hypothesis on both weekly and daily exchange rate data and strongly reject unbiasedness at the weekly horizon, but fail to reject the unbiasedness hypothesis on the daily data. Estimates of the semiparametric procedure in some cases differ substantially from traditional OLS estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Testing forward exchange rate unbiasedness efficiently: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 325-353, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:7:y:2004:n:2:p:325-353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volumen7/hodgson.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-678, October.
    2. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    3. Keith Vorkink & Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton, 2002. "Testing the capital asset pricing model efficiently under elliptical symmetry: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 617-639.
    4. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive Estimation Of Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 44-69, February.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    6. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339 Elsevier.
    7. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
    8. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    9. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:818-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    11. Levine, Ross, 1989. "The pricing of forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-179, June.
    12. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813148543_0003 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Linton, Oliver, 1995. "Second Order Approximation in the Partially Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1079-1112.
    14. Cornell, Bradford, 1989. "The impact of data errors on measurement of the foreign exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 147-157, March.
    15. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive estimation of cointegrating regressions with ARMA errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 231-267.
    16. Martin D. D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 2017. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 3, pages 59-99 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Hodgson, Douglas J, 1999. "Adaptive Estimation of Cointegrated Models: Simulation Evidence and an Application to the Forward Exchange Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 627-650, Nov.-Dec..
    18. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
    19. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:912-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1992. "Adaptive estimation in time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 251-275.
    21. Levine, Ross, 1991. "An empirical inquiry into the nature of the forward exchange rate bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 359-369, May.
    22. Phillips, Peter C.B., 1995. "Robust Nonstationary Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, pages 912-951.
    23. Jeganathan, P., 1995. "Some Aspects of Asymptotic Theory with Applications to Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 818-887, October.
    24. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    25. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    26. Bailey, Ralph W & Baillie, Richard T & McMahon, Patrick C, 1984. "Interpreting Econometric Evidence on Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 67-85, March.
    27. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    28. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amengual, Dante & Sentana, Enrique, 2010. "A comparison of mean-variance efficiency tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 16-34, January.
    2. Amengual, Dante & Sentana, Enrique, 2010. "A comparison of mean-variance efficiency tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 16-34, January.
    3. Dhekra Azouzi & Rohit Vishal Kumar & Chaker Aloui, 2011. "Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Tunisian Exchange Rate Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 17-44, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward exchange market; time series econometrics; nonparametric statistics;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:7:y:2004:n:2:p:325-353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valeria Dowding). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.