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Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors

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  • Liu, Wei
  • Maynard, Alex

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  • Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:12:y:2005:i:5:p:613-628
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    1. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "The covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 5-21, March.
    3. Crowder, William J., 1995. "Covered interest parity and international capital market efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-132.
    4. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
    5. Cornell, Bradford, 1989. "The impact of data errors on measurement of the foreign exchange risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 147-157, March.
    6. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    7. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    8. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    9. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W & Telmer, Chris I, 1993. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1887-1908, December.
    10. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "U.S. International capital flows: Perspectives from rational maximizing models," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 231-288, January.
    11. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    12. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    14. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-129, April.
    15. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.
    16. Tauchen, George, 2001. "The bias of tests for a risk premium in forward exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 695-704, December.
    17. Crowder, William J, 1994. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and common stochastic trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 551-564, October.
    18. Martin D. D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 2017. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 3, pages 59-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market: An econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-18, July.
    20. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    21. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
    22. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1131-1147, October.
    23. Kaminsky, Graciela & Peruga, Rodrigo, 1990. "Can a time-varying risk premium explain excess returns in the forward market for foreign exchange?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 47-70, February.
    24. Alex Maynard, 2003. "Testing for Forward-Rate Unbiasedness: On Regression in Levels and in Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 313-327, May.
    25. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    26. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
    27. Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1991. "Multiple maturities and time-varying risk premia in forward exchange markets : An econometric analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 69-86, February.
    28. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    29. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    30. Nabeya, Seiji & Sørensen, Bent E., 1994. "Asymptotic Distributions of the Least-Squares Estimators and Test Statistics in the Near Unit Root Model with Non-Zero Initial Value and Local Drift and Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(5), pages 937-966, December.
    31. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
    2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "Long-Run Implications of the Covered Interest Rate Parity Condition: Evidence during the Recent Crisis and Non-Crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 41566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christophe Chamley, 2006. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    5. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    6. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
    7. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    8. Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Nagayasu, Jun, 2011. "The threshold nonstationary panel data approach to forward premiums," MPRA Paper 34265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    11. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    12. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Roling & Anna Titova, 2021. "Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instrument persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 151-161, January.
    13. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," FAME Research Paper Series rp156, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    14. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Ilias D. Visvikis, 2011. "The Predictability of Non-Overlapping Forecasts: Evidence from a New Market," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 125-156, March - J.
    15. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato.
    16. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 361-384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Aaron Smallwood; Alex Maynard; Mark Wohar, 2005. "The Long and the Short of It: Long Memory Regressors and Predictive Regressions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 384, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Sakoulis, Georgios & Zivot, Eric & Choi, Kyongwook, 2010. "Structural change in the forward discount: Implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 957-966, December.
    19. Fu, Hsuan & Luger, Richard, 2022. "Multiple testing of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis across currencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 232-245.

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