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The bias of tests for a risk premium in forward exchange rates

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  • Tauchen, George

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  • Tauchen, George, 2001. "The bias of tests for a risk premium in forward exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 695-704, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:8:y:2001:i:5:p:695-704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    2. Phillips, Peter C B, 1977. "Approximations to Some Finite Sample Distributions Associated with a First-Order Stochastic Difference Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 463-485, March.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    5. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    2. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    3. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    4. Grossmann, Axel & Lee, Allissa A. & Simpson, Marc W., 2014. "Forward premium anomaly of the British pound and the euro," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 140-156.
    5. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 77027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    8. Brian Lucey & Grace Loring, 2012. "Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness across Developed and Developing Country Currencies - Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample?Abstract:," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp404, IIIS.
    9. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
    10. Moon, Seongman & Velasco, Carlos, 2013. "Tests for m-dependence based on sample splitting methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 143-159.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    12. Peter G. Szilagyi & Jonathan A. Batten, 2006. "Arbitrage, Covered Interest Parity and Long-Term Dependence between the US Dollar and the Yen," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp128, IIIS.
    13. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    14. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
    15. Batten, Jonathan A. & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2007. "Covered interest parity arbitrage and temporal long-term dependence between the US dollar and the Yen," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 409-421.
    16. Juan A. Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "The Bias For Forward Exchange Rate And The Risk Premium: An Explanation With A Stochastic And Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    17. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2015. "Bid-ask spreads, deviations from PPP and the forward prediction error: The case of the British pound and the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 124-139.
    18. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Ruiz, Jesus, 2006. "Monetary policy and forward bias for foreign exchange revisited: Empirical evidence from the US-UK exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 238-264, March.
    19. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.

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