A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity
This article uses a dynamic multi-factor model of the yield curve with a rational-expectations, general-equilibrium-economy foundation to investigate the uncovered interest parity hypothesis(UIPH). The yield curve model is used to decompose the interest rate data used in the UIPH regressions into components that reflect rationally-based expectations of the cyclical and fundamental components of the underlying economy. The UIPH is not rejected based on the fundamental components of interest rates, but is soundly rejected based on the cyclical components. These results provide empirical support for suggestions in the existing theoretical literature that rationally-based interest rate and exchange rate dynamics associated with cyclical inter-linkages between the economy and financial markets may contribute materially to the UIPH puzzle.
|Date of creation:||21 Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: + 64 (0)7 838 4758 (Administrator)
Fax: + 64 7 838 4331
Web page: http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/departments/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-59.
- Shu Wu, 2007.
"Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 423-442, 03.
- Shu Wu, 2005. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200519, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
- Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Razzak, W A, 2002. "The Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 293-308, October.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
- Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997.
"Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1996. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 014, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003.
"How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1994.
"A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
- Caroline Jardet, 2002.
"Why did the Term Structure of Interest Rates Lose its Predictive Power ?,"
2002-05, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Jardet, Caroline, 2004. "Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-524, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Masao Ogaki, 1999.
"A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
99-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Hyoung-Seok Lim & Masao Ogaki, 2013. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-87, 02.
- Hyoung-Seok Lim & Masao Ogaki, 2003. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," RCER Working Papers 504, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521485845 is not listed on IDEAS
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
- Natalya Delcoure & John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty, 2000. "The Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Revisited: Evidence from a New Test," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 464, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August.
- Delcoure, Natalya & Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis reexamined: evidence from a new test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, May.
- Fang, Victor & Muljono, Ronny, 2003. "An empirical analysis of the Australian dollar swap spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 153-173, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:06/16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brian Silverstone)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.