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The Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Revisited

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  • Razzak, W A

Abstract

It is widely accepted that long-term interest rates are more suitable for testing the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) than shorter-term rates. This paper shows that while using longer-term (1-year) forward exchange rates are also more suitable than shorter-term rates (1-month) for testing the forward exchange rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) the test is sensitive to the choice of the numeraire currency, i.e. the US dollar, the Deutsche mark (DM) or the Japanese yen. The FRUH holds in currencies measured in terms of the US dollar when a one-year forward contract is used instead of a one-month contract, but it does not hold when the DM and the yen are used as numeraire currencies. Copyright @ 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Razzak, W A, 2002. "The Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis Revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 293-308, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:7:y:2002:i:4:p:293-308
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Guender & Bevan Cook, 2011. "Monetary policy implementation and uncovered interest parity: Empirical evidence from Oceania," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 209-229, January.
    2. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Michael Kunkler, 2023. "Synthetic money: Addressing the budget‐constraint issue," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3774-3788, October.
    4. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
    5. Serttas, Fatma Ozgu, 2010. "Essays on infinite-variance stable errors and robust estimation procedures," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002742, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato.

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