IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v26y2006i7p627-656.html

New evidence on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign‐exchange market

Author

Listed:
  • Kleopatra Nikolaou
  • Lucio Sarno

Abstract

A large empirical literature has tested the unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign‐exchange market with the use of forward exchange rates. This article amends the conventional testing framework to exploit the information in currency options, with a newly constructed data set for three major dollar exchange rates. The main results are that (a) tests based on stationary regressions suggest that options provide biased predictions of the future spot exchange rate, and (b) co‐integration–based tests that are robust to several statistical problems afflicting stationary regressions and allow for endogeneity issues arising from a potential omitted risk premium term are supportive of unbiasedness. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:627–656, 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Kleopatra Nikolaou & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "New evidence on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign‐exchange market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 627-656, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:26:y:2006:i:7:p:627-656
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erdem, F. Pinar & Geyikci, Utku Bora, 2021. "Local, global and regional shocks indices in emerging exchange rate markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 98-113.
    2. Jiadong Tong & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2016. "Information Flow Between Forward and Spot Markets: Evidence From the Chinese Renminbi," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 695-718, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:26:y:2006:i:7:p:627-656. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.