IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v36y2016i7p695-718.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Information Flow Between Forward and Spot Markets: Evidence From the Chinese Renminbi

Author

Listed:
  • Jiadong Tong
  • Zijun Wang
  • Jian Yang

Abstract

We apply a new model selection approach that allows for the joint determination of structural breaks and cointegration to examine the term structure of Chinese Renminbi (RMB)‐U.S. dollar spot and forward exchange rates during the managed‐floating period of 2005–2013. We find that the RMB market has exhibited different dynamic relationships between spot and forward exchange rates over time, apparently due to significant policy changes. Offshore forward rates with either shorter or longer maturities can substantially explain the in‐sample variation of the onshore spot exchange rate at longer horizons, while only the offshore forward rate with a shorter maturity can significantly predict RMB onshore spot rate changes out‐of‐sample. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:695–718, 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Jiadong Tong & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2016. "Information Flow Between Forward and Spot Markets: Evidence From the Chinese Renminbi," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 695-718, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:7:p:695-718
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    2. David K. Ding & Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2014. "The Price Discovery Puzzle in Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions for Different Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 103-123, February.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    6. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler & David J. Leatham, 2001. "Asset storability and price discovery in commodity futures markets: A new look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-300, March.
    7. Jian Yang & Cheng Hsiao & Qi Li & Zijun Wang, 2006. "The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 727-744, September.
    8. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    9. Cornell, Bradford, 1977. "Spot rates, forward rates and exchange market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-65, August.
    10. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
    11. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
    12. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
    13. Abdullah, Dewan A & Rangazas, Peter C, 1988. "Money and the Business Cycle: Another Look," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 680-685, November.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    15. Daniel, Kent & Hodrick, Robert J. & Lu, Zhongjin, 2017. "The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 211-262, September.
    16. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    17. Kleopatra Nikolaou & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "New evidence on the forward unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign‐exchange market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 627-656, July.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    19. Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher & Chen, Mei-Ling & Wu, An-Chi, 2014. "Characterizing information flows among spot, deliverable forward and non-deliverable forward exchange rate markets: A cross-country comparison," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-137.
    20. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    21. Zijun Wang, 2006. "The joint determination of the number and the type of structural changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 222-227, November.
    22. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
    23. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    24. Fung, Hung-Gay & LEUNG, Wai K. & Zhu, Jiang, 2004. "Nondeliverable forward market for Chinese RMB: A first look," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 348-352.
    25. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    27. Zhao, Yanping & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert & Yang, Haizhen, 2013. "The relationship between the Renminbi future spot return and the forward discount rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 156-168.
    28. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, September.
    29. Choi, Kyongwook & Zivot, Eric, 2007. "Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 342-363, April.
    30. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    31. Melvin, Michael & Zhou, Su, 1989. "Do centrally planned exchange rates behave differently from capitalist rates?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 325-334, June.
    32. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    33. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
    34. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    35. Jian Yang & David J. Leatham, 2001. "Currency Convertibility And Linkage Between Chinese Official And Swap Market Exchange Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(3), pages 347-359, July.
    36. Gu, Li & McNelis, Paul D., 2013. "Yen/Dollar volatility and Chinese fear of floating: Pressures from the NDF market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 37-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ziliang Yu & Jian Yang & Robert I. Webb, 2023. "Price discovery in China's crude oil futures markets: An emerging Asian benchmark?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 297-324, March.
    2. Lei Ming & Xinran Zhang & Qianqiu Liu & Shenggang Yang, 2020. "A revisit to the hedge and safe haven properties of gold: New evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1442-1456, September.
    3. Xuedong Wu & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Berna Karali, 2018. "The impact of data frequency on market efficiency tests of commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 696-714, June.
    4. Yanping Zhao & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Return and volatility connectedness of Chinese onshore, offshore, and forward exchange rate," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1843-1860, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
    2. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    4. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
    5. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
    6. Kearney, Fearghal & Cummins, Mark & Murphy, Finbarr, 2019. "Using extracted forward rate term structure information to forecast foreign exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar," MPRA Paper 33167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    12. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
    13. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    14. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Forecasting the CNY-CNH pricing differential: The role of investor attention," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    15. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
    16. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    17. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bai, Shuming & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2010. "Currency crisis and the forward discount bias: Evidence from emerging economies under breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 556-574, December.
    19. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
    20. Ana Sequeira, 2013. "Predicting aggregate returns using valuation ratios out-of-sample," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:7:p:695-718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.