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Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos dal Bianco

    (BBVA Research)

  • Maximo Camacho

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging outof-sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one week to one month. Specifically, we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard-to-beat random walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons. Moreover, our model improves greatly when we use the direction-of-change metric, which has more economic relevance than other loss measures. With this measure, our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate has an equal chance to go up or down, with statistically significant improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos dal Bianco & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Working Papers 1203, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1203
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    Cited by:

    1. Costantini, Mauro & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 4181, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Jonas E. Arias & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2013. "Inference Based on SVARs Identied with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Working Papers 2013-24, FEDEA.
    3. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "La evolucion de la financiacion de las comunidades autonomas de regimen comun, 2002-2011," Working Papers 1332, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Ángel de la Fuente, 2013. "Las finanzas autonómicas en boom y en crisis (2003-12)," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 205(2), pages 127-150, June.
    5. Angel De la Fuente, 2013. "La financiacion de las comunidades autonomas de regimen comun en 2011," Working Papers 1330, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Radim Gottwald, 2015. "The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2015-52, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    7. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2016. "Gold, currencies and market efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 27-34.
    8. Stavárek Daniel & Miglietti Cynthia, 2015. "Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Review of Economic Perspectives, De Gruyter Open, vol. 15(2), pages 157-177, June.
    9. Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Xia, Le, 2013. "China's RMB bilateral swap agreements : What explains the choice of countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Medel, Carlos & Camilleri, Gilmour & Hsu, Hsiang-Ling & Kania, Stefan & Touloumtzoglou, Miltiadis, 2015. "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 65290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Claudio, Morana, 2015. "The US$/€ exchange rate: Structural modeling and forecasting during the recent financial crises," Working Papers 321, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 28 Dec 2015.
    12. Tatiana Alonso & Javier Alonso & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Cristina Rohde & David Tuesta, 2013. "Global Financial Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Insurance and Pensions," Working Papers 1321, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    13. Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Saifeddine Chaibi & Jose Felix Izquierdo & Felix Lores & Ana Rubio & Jaime Zurita, 2013. "Some international trends in the regulation of mortgage markets: Implications for Spain," Working Papers 1317, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    14. Abbate, Angela & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Javier Alonso & Tatiana Alonso & Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Cristina Rohde & David Tuesta, 2013. "Tendencias regulatorias financieras globales y retos para las Pensiones y Seguros," Working Papers 1323, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro-dollar rate; exchange rate forecasting; State-space model; mixed frequencies;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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