IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v27y2014icp115-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Characterizing information flows among spot, deliverable forward and non-deliverable forward exchange rate markets: A cross-country comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Kai-Li
  • Fawson, Christopher
  • Chen, Mei-Ling
  • Wu, An-Chi

Abstract

Using an innovative GMGARCH-MSKST model that allows for asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation, this paper analyzes return and volatility interactions among spot, non-deliverable forward (NDF) and deliverable forward (DF) exchange rate markets for Korea and Taiwan. With the backdrop of these two very different regulatory and institutional regimes we examine how the inter-temporal dynamics of forward-directed currency market instruments are both influenced by, and influence, spot market exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher & Chen, Mei-Ling & Wu, An-Chi, 2014. "Characterizing information flows among spot, deliverable forward and non-deliverable forward exchange rate markets: A cross-country comparison," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:27:y:2014:i:c:p:115-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X14000031
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Cecilia Maya & Karoll Gómez, 2008. "What Exactly is "Bad News" in Foreign Exchange Markets? Evidence from Latin American Markets," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 161-183.
    3. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    4. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
    5. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    6. Antonios Antoniou & Phil Holmes & Richard Priestley, 1998. "The effects of stock index futures trading on stock index volatility: An analysis of the asymmetric response of volatility to news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 151-166, April.
    7. Kai-Li Wang & Christopher Fawson & Christopher B. Barrett & James B. McDonald, 2001. "A flexible parametric GARCH model with an application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 521-536.
    8. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    9. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    10. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2009. "Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 597-615, October.
    11. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    12. Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1994. "Spread and volatility in spot and forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 375-383, June.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    14. Robert McCauley & Michela Scatigna, 2011. "Foreign exchange trading in emerging currencies: more financial, more offshore," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    16. Park, Jinwoo, 2001. "Information flows between non-deliverable forward (NDF) and spot markets: Evidence from Korean currency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 363-377, August.
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    18. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    19. Gregory Koutmos & Johan Knif, 2002. "Estimating Systematic Risk Using Time Varying Distributions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 59-73, March.
    20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    21. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2004. "Modeling the conditional covariance between stock and bond returns : A multivariate GARCH approach," Other publications TiSEM 94fe5ada-715a-4339-b94c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. McKenzie, Michael, 2002. "The Economics of Exchange Rate Volatility Asymmetry," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 247-260, July.
    23. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    24. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
    25. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    26. Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
    27. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    28. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    29. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    30. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J, 1994. "Alternative Models for the Conditional Heteroscedasticity of Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 563-598, October.
    31. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    32. Peter de Goeij, 2004. "Modeling the Conditional Covariance Between Stock and Bond Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 531-564.
    33. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2011. "How do exchange rates co-move? A study on the currencies of five inflation-targeting countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 418-429, February.
    34. Miguel A. Ferreira, 2005. "Evaluating Interest Rate Covariance Models Within a Value-at-Risk Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(1), pages 126-168.
    35. Albert K. Tsui & Kin-Yip Ho, 2004. "Conditional heteroscedasticity of exchange rates: further results based on the fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 637-642.
    36. Darren Butterworth, 2000. "The impact of futures trading on underlying stock index volatility: the case of the FTSE Mid 250 contract," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 439-442.
    37. Guy Debelle & Jacob Gyntelberg & Michael Plumb, 2006. "Forward currency markets in Asia: lessons from the Australian experience," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    38. Marion Kohler, 2010. "Exchange rates during financial crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    39. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    40. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    41. Gu, Li & McNelis, Paul D., 2013. "Yen/Dollar volatility and Chinese fear of floating: Pressures from the NDF market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 37-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Forecasting the CNY-CNH pricing differential: The role of investor attention," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    2. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    3. Jiadong Tong & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2016. "Information Flow Between Forward and Spot Markets: Evidence From the Chinese Renminbi," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 695-718, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    2. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    3. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    4. Robert T. Daigler & Ann Marie Hibbert & Ivelina Pavlova, 2014. "Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 74-92, January.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6804 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Helena Chuliá & Hipòlit Torró, 2008. "The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1066-1094, November.
    7. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    8. Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "Robust ranking of multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 172-185.
    9. Frank J. Fabozzi & Radu Tunaru & Tony Wu, 2004. "Modeling Volatility for the Chinese Equity Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 5(1), pages 79-92, May.
    10. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-648, December.
    11. Amira, Khaled & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1234-1263, October.
    12. de Goeij, Peter & Marquering, Wessel, 2009. "Stock and bond market interactions with level and asymmetry dynamics: An out-of-sample application," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 318-329, March.
    13. Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
    14. Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Ranking multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    15. Sofiane Aboura & Julien Chevallier, 2014. "Cross‐market spillovers with ‘volatility surprise’," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 194-207, November.
    16. Hyde, Stuart J & Bredin, Don P & Nguyen, Nghia, 2007. "Correlation dynamics between Asia-Pacific, EU and US stock returns," MPRA Paper 9681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Charlotte Christiansen, 2010. "Decomposing European bond and equity volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 105-122.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    19. Sanjay Sehgal & Wasim Ahmad & Florent Deisting, 2015. "An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, May.
    20. Boubaker, Sabri & Jouini, Jamel & Lahiani, Amine, 2016. "Financial contagion between the US and selected developed and emerging countries: The case of the subprime crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 14-28.
    21. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André Santos, 2015. "Measuring Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios using Yield Curve Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 65-82, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate GMGARCH; Forward-directed currency markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:27:y:2014:i:c:p:115-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.