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Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus

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  • Ahmad, Rubi
  • Rhee, S. Ghon
  • Wong, Yuen Meng

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region’s currency markets are generally efficient within-country when tested using the Johansen (1991, 1995) cointegration technique whereas market efficiency fails to hold when tested using Fama’s (1984) conventional regression. Using the Pilbeam and Olmo (2011) model, we reconcile these conflicting findings. The Pilbeam and Olmo (2011) model confirms within-country market efficiency. It further confirms that free-float currency markets are more resilient than managed-float currency markets among 12 Asia-Pacific economies. From the across-country perspective, the foreign exchange markets are mostly efficient and the results show that the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis was a more disturbing event than the 2008–2009 global financial crisis in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1574-1592
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aysun, Uluc & Lee, Sanglim, 2014. "Can time-varying risk premiums explain the excess returns in the interest rate parity condition?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 78-100.
    2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    3. Boubaker, Sabri & Jouini, Jamel & Lahiani, Amine, 2016. "Financial contagion between the US and selected developed and emerging countries: The case of the subprime crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 14-28.
    4. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2016. "Gold, currencies and market efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 27-34.
    5. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2013. "Impact of the foreign exchange rates fluctuations on returns and volatility of the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 47229, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2013.
    6. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    7. Yuen-Meng Wong, 2016. "Malaysia REITs: First Decade Development and Returns Characteristics," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 371-409.
    8. Nobi, Ashadun & Maeng, Seong Eun & Ha, Gyeong Gyun & Lee, Jae Woo, 2014. "Effects of global financial crisis on network structure in a local stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 135-143.
    9. Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher & Chen, Mei-Ling & Wu, An-Chi, 2014. "Characterizing information flows among spot, deliverable forward and non-deliverable forward exchange rate markets: A cross-country comparison," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-137.
    10. Mobarek, Asma & Mollah, Sabur & Keasey, Kevin, 2014. "A cross-country analysis of herd behavior in Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 107-127.
    11. Auer, Benjamin R. & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2016. "Do carry trade returns show signs of long memory?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 201-208.
    12. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    13. Yamani, Ehab A. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2014. "Financial crises and the global value premium: Revisiting Fama and French," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 115-136.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange market efficiency; Forward unbiasedness hypothesis; Cointegration; Asia-Pacific currencies;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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