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Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach

  • Craig Burnside
  • Martin Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo

High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low interest rate currencies. We argue that adverse selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets can account for this "forward premium puzzle." The key feature of our model is that the adverse selection problem facing market makers is worse when an agent wants to trade against a public information signal. So, when based on public information, the currency is expected to appreciate, there is more adverse selection associated with a sell order than with a buy order. (JEL E43, F31, G15)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.1.2.127
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aej/mac/data/2008-0028_data.zip
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 127-54

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:127-54
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.2.127
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro
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  1. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30.
  2. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Tracy Yue Wang & David Hirshleifer & Bing Han, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," 2010 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dasgupta, Amil & Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2000. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," CEPR Discussion Papers 2610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2003. "Reputation and interdealer trading: a microstructure analysis of the Treasury Bond market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 99-141, April.
  8. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32.
  9. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2005. "International equity flows and returns: a quantitative equilibrium approach," International Finance 0508006, EconWPA.
  10. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  11. Rui Albuquerque & Eva De Francisco & Luis B. Marques, 2008. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2297-2343, October.
  12. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
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