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Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns

  • Albuquerque, Rui
  • de Francisco, Eva
  • Marques, Luis

We present a model of equity trading with informed and uninformed investors where informed investors act upon firm-specific private information and marketwide private information. The model is used to structurally identify the component of order flow that is due to marketwide private information. Trades driven by marketwide private information display very little or no correlation with the first principal component of order flow. This finding implies that a simple statistical factor is a poor measure of marketwide private information. Moreover, the model suggests that the previously documented comovement in order flow captures mostly common variation in liquidity trades. We find that marketwide private information obtained from equity market data forecasts industry stock returns and foreign exchange returns consistent with Evans and Lyons' (2004a) model of exchange rate determination.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5604.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5604
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  1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Rich Lyons & Martin Evans, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
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  7. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2005. "International equity flows and returns: a quantitative equilibrium approach," International Finance 0508006, EconWPA.
  9. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2006. "The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 872, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  11. Rime,D., 2000. "Private or public information in foreign exchange markets? : an empirical analysis," Memorandum 14/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  12. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-35.
  13. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  14. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  15. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gehrig, Thomas, 1993. " An Information Based Explanation of the Domestic Bias in International Equity Investment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 97-109.
  18. Albuquerque, Rui & H. Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2009. "Global private information in international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-46, October.
  19. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
  20. Bill B. Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Delroy M. Hunter, 2006. "Dynamic Relations between International Equity and Currency Markets: The Role of Currency Order Flow," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 219-258, January.
  21. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  22. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 17-51.
  23. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  24. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
  25. Harford, Jarrad & Kaul, Aditya, 2005. "Correlated Order Flow: Pervasiveness, Sources, and Pricing Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 29-55, March.
  26. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1994. "Information and Index Arbitrage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 481-509, October.
  27. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  28. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 529-551, December.
  29. Chan, Kalok, 1993. " Imperfect Information and Cross-Autocorrelation among Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1211-30, September.
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