IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finmar/v12y2009i2p268-289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow

Author

Listed:
  • Underwood, Shane

Abstract

In this paper I test the hypothesis that trading activity in the stock and bond markets contains important marketwide pricing information. Using a large sample of actively traded stocks and U.S. Treasury securities, I find that aggregate order imbalances play a strong role in explaining cross-market returns. I interpret this as evidence that aggregate order flow reveals information about the risk preferences, beliefs, and endowments of the investor population that is relevant for pricing securities in both markets. I also find evidence that cross-market hedging is an important source of linkages across the two markets, especially during periods of elevated equity volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Underwood, Shane, 2009. "The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 268-289, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:12:y:2009:i:2:p:268-289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386-4181(08)00034-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    4. Chakravarty, Sugato, 2001. "Stealth-trading: Which traders' trades move stock prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 289-307, August.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    6. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    7. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    8. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
    9. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. "An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-764, June.
    10. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957.
    11. Harford, Jarrad & Kaul, Aditya, 2005. "Correlated Order Flow: Pervasiveness, Sources, and Pricing Effects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 29-55, March.
    12. Michael J. Barclay & Terrence Hendershott & Kenneth Kotz, 2006. "Automation versus Intermediation: Evidence from Treasuries Going Off the Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2395-2414, October.
    13. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    14. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    16. Caballe, Jordi & Krishnan, Murugappa, 1994. "Imperfect Competition in a Multi-security Market with Risk Neutrality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 695-704, May.
    17. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    18. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    19. Barsky, Robert B, 1989. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1132-1145, December.
    20. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    21. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, June.
    22. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    23. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
    25. James P. Weston, 2000. "Competition on the Nasdaq and the Impact of Recent Market Reforms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2565-2598, December.
    26. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    27. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    28. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Core versus périphérie : pourquoi les taux souverains sont-ils négativement corrélés ?
      by contact@captaineconomics.fr (Le Captain') in Captain Economics on 2012-11-23 12:00:02

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Indriawan & Feng Jiao & Yiuman Tse, 2019. "The impact of the US stock market opening on price discovery of government bond futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 779-802, July.
    2. Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trader positions in VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Smales, Lee A., 2013. "Bond futures and order imbalance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 113-132.
    4. Hoang, Lai T. & Baur, Dirk G., 2022. "Loaded for bear: Bitcoin private wallets, exchange reserves and prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Volatility spillovers across global asset classes: Evidence from time and frequency domains," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 194-202.
    6. Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "The effects of oil price shocks on U.S. stock order flow imbalances and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 137-146.
    7. Su, Xianfang, 2020. "Dynamic behaviors and contributing factors of volatility spillovers across G7 stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Jørgensen, Kjell & Valseth, Siri, 2010. "A market microstructure approach to cross-market spillovers," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010/11, University of Stavanger.
    9. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Does the "Bund" dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1057-1072, May.
    10. Neharika Sobti, 2018. "Domestic intermarket linkages: measuring dynamic return and volatility connectedness among Indian financial markets," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(4), pages 325-344, December.
    11. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
    12. Mahmud, Nurrul Iiyana & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Are shariah (islamic) stock market returns stable ? evidence from the select islamic stock indices of emerging markets, USA, UK and Japan," MPRA Paper 101879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    14. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.
    15. Eric Girardin & Dijun Tan & Woon K. Wong, 2010. "Information Content of Order Flow and Cross-market Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence for the Chinese Stock, Treasury and Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 022010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Bansal, Naresh & Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris, 2015. "Equity volatility as a determinant of future term-structure volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-51.
    17. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ashutosh Dash & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, 2021. "Volatility Spillover Dynamics between Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Stocks in the Time-Frequency Domain: Implications for Portfolio Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-22, November.
    18. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S., 2015. "The effect of security and market order flow shocks on co-movement," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 136-155.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. He, Yan & Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2009. "Price discovery in the round-the-clock U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 464-490, July.
    3. Pasquariello, Paolo & Vega, Clara, 2009. "The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Eric Girardin & Dijun Tan & Woon K. Wong, 2010. "Information Content of Order Flow and Cross-market Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence for the Chinese Stock, Treasury and Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 022010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    7. Rui Albuquerque & Eva De Francisco & Luis B. Marques, 2008. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2297-2343, October.
    8. Li, Mengling & Zheng, Huanhuan & Tai Leung Chong, Terence & Zhang, Yang, 2016. "The stock–bond comovements and cross-market trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 417-438.
    9. Chordia, Tarun & Sarkar, Asani & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "The Joint Dynamics of Liquidity, Returns, and Volatility Across Small and Large Firms," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6z81z2wc, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    10. Qin Lei & Xuewu Wang, 2012. "Flight to liquidity due to heterogeneity in investment horizon," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 316-350, August.
    11. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2020. "On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    13. Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2015. "Liquidity, credit quality, and the relation between volatility and trading activity: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 183-203.
    14. Fleming, Michael J. & Mizrach, Bruce & Nguyen, Giang, 2018. "The microstructure of a U.S. Treasury ECN: The BrokerTec platform," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 2-22.
    15. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017.
    16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price Discovery In The Italian Sovereign Bonds Market: The Role Of Order Flow," Working Papers LuissLab 13108, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    19. Smales, Lee A., 2013. "Bond futures and order imbalance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 113-132.
    20. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    21. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:12:y:2009:i:2:p:268-289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.