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Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?

Listed author(s):
  • Barsky, Robert B

The 1970s were associated with very low real interest rates and a large drop in equity values relative to dividends and earnings. This paper explores the possible roles of increased risk and reduced productivity growth in accounting for the behavior of bond and stock prices in a simple general equilibrium model. Both disturbances unambiguously lower the riskless interest rate, but may cause the stock market to respond perversely depending on the degree of aversion to intertemporal substitution and the share of the corporate sector in total wealth. Copyright 1989 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 79 (1989)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1132-1145

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:79:y:1989:i:5:p:1132-45
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  1. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1976. "Inflation Uncertainty and Expected Returns on Treasury Bills," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 427-448, June.
  3. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
  5. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
  6. Campbell, John, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," Scholarly Articles 3122544, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Robert S. Pindyck, 1983. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 1186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 1984. "Comparative Dynamics of an Equilibrium Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 491-508.
  9. DREZE, Jacques H. & MODIGLIANI, Franco, "undated". "Cosumption decisions under uncertainty," CORE Discussion Papers RP 119, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  11. Sandmo, Agnar, 1969. "Capital Risk, Consumption, and Portfolio Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 586-599, October.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
  14. Malkiel, Burton G, 1979. "The Capital Formation Problem in the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 291-306, May.
  15. Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert L. McDonald, 1983. "Inflation and the Role of Bonds in Investor Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 1091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Edward C. Prescott & Rajnish Mehra, 2005. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case Of Homogeneous Households," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 11, pages 357-371 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  18. Brock, William A., 1980. "Asset Prices in a Production Economy," Working Papers 275, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  19. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-687, July.
  21. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-380, June.
  22. Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  24. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
  25. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Greenwood, Jeremy & Huffman, Gregory W., 1987. "A dynamic equilibrium model of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 203-228, March.
  27. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
  28. Robert E. Hall, 1985. "Real Interest and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
  30. Rajnish Mehra, 2006. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 12433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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