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Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns

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  • RUI ALBUQUERQUE
  • EVA DE FRANCISCO
  • LUIS B. MARQUES

Abstract

We present a model of equity trading with informed and uninformed investors where informed investors trade on firm-specific and marketwide private information. The model is used to identify the component of order flow due to marketwide private information. Estimated trades driven by marketwide private information display little or no correlation with the first principal component in order flow. Indeed, we find that co-movement in order flow captures variation mostly in liquidity trades. Marketwide private information obtained from equity market data forecasts industry stock returns, and also currency returns. Copyright (c) 2008 The American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Albuquerque & Eva De Francisco & Luis B. Marques, 2008. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2297-2343, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:63:y:2008:i:5:p:2297-2343
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    Cited by:

    1. Foucault, Thierry & Fresard, Laurent, 2014. "Learning from peers' stock prices and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 554-577.
    2. Pasquariello, Paolo & Vega, Clara, 2009. "The on-the-run liquidity phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
    4. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Ramazan Gençay & Nikola Gradojevic & Richard Olsen & Faruk Selçuk, 2015. "Informed traders’ arrival in foreign exchange markets: Does geography matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1431-1462, December.
    7. Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Charoenwong, Charlie & Ding, David K., 2011. "Information asymmetry in warrants and their underlying stocks on the stock exchange of Thailand," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 474-487, June.
    8. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2013. "Private information and its origins in an electronic foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 86-93.
    9. Tirapat, Sunti & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "Opportunistic insider trading," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1046-1061.
    10. Cedric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "Disconnect and Information Content of International Capital Flows: Evidence and Theory," Working Papers 102009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Ülkü, Numan & Demirci, Ebru, 2012. "Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-86.
    12. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-154, July.
    13. Jacob Gyntelberg & Subhanij Tientip & Mico Loretan, 2012. "Private Information, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 12/213, International Monetary Fund.
    14. repec:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:162-175 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lynch, Andrew & Nikolic, Biljana & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling) & Yu, Han, 2014. "Aggregate short selling, commonality, and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 199-229.
    16. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.
    17. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
    18. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:40-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Avdis, Efstathios, 2016. "Information tradeoffs in dynamic financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 568-584.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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