IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

International capital flows under dispersed private information

  • Tille, Cédric
  • van Wincoop, Eric

It is well established that private information is critical to our understanding of asset prices. In this paper we argue that it also affects international capital flows and use a simple two-country DSGE model to illustrate its impact. We show that private information (i) increases the volatility of both net and gross capital flows, (ii) leads to a high correlation between capital inflows and outflows, (iii) leads to a disconnect of capital flows from observed macro fundamentals and (iv) implies that capital flows contain information about the future macro fundamentals. We also show that dispersed information affects capital flows both through asset prices and directly, so that the impact on flows is not just the mirror image of the impact on prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199614000294
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 31-49

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:93:y:2014:i:1:p:31-49
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March.
  2. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2007. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dow James & Gorton Gary, 1995. "Profitable Informed Trading in a Simple General Equilibrium Model of Asset Pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 327-369, December.
  4. Leuz, Christian & Lins, Karl V. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Do Foreigners Invest Less in Poorly Governed Firms?," Working Papers 07-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  5. Fernando Broner & Tatiana Didier & Aitor Erce & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2011. "Gross capital flows: dynamics and crises," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1039, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bae, Kee-Hong & Stulz, Rene M. & Tan, Hongping, 2006. "Do Local Analysts Know More? A Cross-Country Study of the Performance of Local Analysts and Foreign Analysts," Working Paper Series 2005-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  10. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
  11. David H. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," Working papers 487, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  12. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  14. Martin D. D. Evans & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2005. "International Capital Flows, Returns and World Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 11701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. R Portes & H Rey, 2000. "The Determinants Of Cross-Border Equity Flows," CEP Discussion Papers dp0446, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  16. Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "International capital flows," Staff Reports 280, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Gehrig, Thomas, 1993. " An Information Based Explanation of the Domestic Bias in International Equity Investment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 97-109.
  18. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-80, December.
  19. Shiller, Robert J & Kon-Ya, Fumiko & Tsutsui, Yoshiro, 1996. "Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 156-64, February.
  20. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  21. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Alan Sutherland & Michael B Devereux, 2007. "Country Portfolio Dynamics," 2007 Meeting Papers 386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2006. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: the role of real exchange rate volatility," Working Paper Series 0685, European Central Bank.
  24. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December.
  25. Kang, Jun-Koo & Stulz, Rene M., 1997. "Why is there a home bias? An analysis of foreign portfolio equity ownership in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-28, October.
  26. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "Solving DSGE portfolio choice models with dispersed private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-24.
  27. Spiegel, Matthew & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Informed Speculation and Hedging in a Noncompetitive Securities Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 307-29.
  28. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregor H & Schneider, Martin, 2006. "Global Private Information in International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
  31. Eric van Wincoop & Cedric Tille, 2008. "A New Perspective on "The New Rule"of the Current Account," 2008 Meeting Papers 452, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  32. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:93:y:2014:i:1:p:31-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.