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International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence

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  • Cédric Tille
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

We develop a new theory of international capital flows based on dispersed information across individual investors. There is extensive evidence of information heterogeneity within and across countries, which has proven critical to understanding asset price behavior. We introduce information dispersion into an open economy dynamic general equilibrium portfolio choice model, and emphasize two implications for capital flows that are specific to the presence of dispersed information. First, gross and net capital flows become partially disconnected from publicly observed fundamentals. Second, capital flows (particularly gross flows) contain information about future fundamentals, even after controlling for current fundamentals. We find that these implications are quantitatively significant and consistent with data for industrialized countries.

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  • Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2008. "International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14390
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    Cited by:

    1. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    2. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
    3. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Juergen von Hagen & Haiping zhang, 2010. "International Capital Flows and Aggregate Output," Working Papers 10-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    5. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2015. "Information Aggregation in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 159-207.
    6. Jürgen von Hagen & Haiping Zhang, 2014. "International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 195-224, February.
    7. Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2010. "Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 113-128, January.
    8. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    9. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    10. Jurgen von Hagen & Haiping Zhang, 2011. "International Capital Flows with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 17-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    11. Jürgen von Hagen, 2009. "International Capital Flows and World Output Gains," 2009 Meeting Papers 311, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2013. "International gross capital flows: New uses of balance of payments data and application to financial crises," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 16-28.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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