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Investor Experiences and International Capital Flows

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrike Malmendier
  • Demian Pouzo
  • Victoria Vanasco

Abstract

We propose a novel explanation for classic international macro puzzles regarding capital flows and portfolio investment, which builds on modern macro-finance models of experience-based belief formation. Individual experiences of past macroeconomic outcomes have been shown to exert a long-lasting influence on beliefs about future realizations, and to explain domestic stock-market investment. We argue that experience effects can explain the tendency of investors to hold an over proportional fraction of their equity wealth in domestic stocks (home bias), to invest in domestic equity markets in periods of domestic crises (retrenchment), and to withdraw capital from foreign equity markets in periods of foreign crises (fickleness). Experience-based learning generates additional implications regarding the strength of these puzzles in times of higher or lower economic activity and depending on the demographic composition of market participants. We test and confirm these predictions in the data.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ulrike Malmendier & Demian Pouzo & Victoria Vanasco, 2019. "Investor Experiences and International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14312
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    Cited by:

    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Lin, Anchor Y. & Lin, Yueh-Neng, 2021. "Market similarity and cross-border investment performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    3. Fan, Zhebin & Neupane, Suman, 2024. "Investor horizon, experience, and the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Heinke, Steve & Olschewski, Sebastian & Rieskamp, Jörg, 2024. "Experiences, demand for risky investments, and implications for price dynamics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. Zsoka Koczan & Alexander Plekhanov, 2024. "Scarred for Life? Recession Experiences, Beliefs and the State," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1074-1111, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics

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