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Advance Information and Asset Prices

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  • Albuquerque, Rui
  • Miao, Jianjun

Abstract

This paper provides a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model in which investors have heterogeneous information and investment opportunities. Informed investors privately receive advance information that is useful for predicting future earnings, but is unrelated to current earnings. This information is immediately partially incorporated into stock prices. In response to good advance information, informed investors act as trend chasers and raise investments in both stocks and nontraded assets, leading them to bear more aggregate risk. This raises the expected risk premium and generates short-run momentum. Uninformed investors act as contrarians and sell stocks. When the advance information materializes in the future, excess returns fall, generating long-run reversals.

Suggested Citation

  • Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2007. "Advance Information and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6588
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2013. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(5), pages 1087-1145.
    2. Mu-Shun Wang, 2016. "Idiosyncratic volatility, executive compensation and corporate governance: examination of the direct and moderate effects," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 213-244, March.
    3. Albuquerque, Rui, 2009. "Skewness in Stock Returns, Periodic Cash Payouts, and Investor Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 7573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    5. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:2:lobao is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
    7. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:lobao is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    advance information; momentum and reversal effects; rational expectations equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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