IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/mgtdec/v46y2025i4p2206-2223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of supply and demand shocks on abnormal fluctuation of stock price: An analysis of US–China trade friction

Author

Listed:
  • Jinwei Li
  • Qian Wei
  • Tianshu Jiang

Abstract

This paper aims to study the impact of supply and demand shocks on abnormal fluctuation of stock price. We use event study and regression analysis methods to explain why the supply and demand shocks caused by US–China trade friction in targeting industries can affect the whole Chinese securities market. Our findings reveal a direct effect of shocks that can affect the stock prices of targeted companies. Additionally, there is a network effect in which the supply side and demand side shocks propagate upstream and downstream through the network, in turn affecting the stock prices of nontargeted companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinwei Li & Qian Wei & Tianshu Jiang, 2025. "Impacts of supply and demand shocks on abnormal fluctuation of stock price: An analysis of US–China trade friction," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 2206-2223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:46:y:2025:i:4:p:2206-2223
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.4097
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4097
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/mde.4097?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petia Topalova, 2010. "Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization: Evidence on Poverty from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-41, October.
    2. Arnold, Jens M. & Javorcik, Beata S. & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2011. "Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms?: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 136-146, September.
    3. Wang, Gang-Jin & Chen, Yang-Yang & Si, Hui-Bin & Xie, Chi & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Multilayer information spillover networks analysis of China’s financial institutions based on variance decompositions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 325-347.
    4. Zhu, Zhaohui & Tan, Yafei, 2022. "Can green industrial policy promote green innovation in heavily polluting enterprises? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 59-75.
    5. Dohyoung Kwon, 2022. "The impacts of oil price shocks and United States economic uncertainty on global stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1595-1607, April.
    6. Rajeev K. Goel & James R. Jones, 2022. "Managing the risk of COVID‐19 via vaccine passports: Modeling economic and policy implications," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2578-2586, September.
    7. Fu, Tong, 2020. "The dilemma of government intervention in a firm's financing: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Renaud Bourlès & Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez & Jacques Mairesse & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2013. "Do Product Market Regulations In Upstream Sectors Curb Productivity Growth? Panel Data Evidence For OECD Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1750-1768, December.
    9. Iori, Giulia, 2002. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    11. Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Advance information and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 236-275.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    13. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    14. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    15. Iacovone, Leonardo & Javorcik, Beata & Keller, Wolfgang & Tybout, James, 2015. "Supplier responses to Walmart's invasion in Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 1-15.
    16. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan, 2022. "The impact of trade policy on soybean futures in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1152-1163, June.
    17. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    18. Chang SUN & Zhigang TAO & Hongjie YUAN & Hongyong ZHANG, 2019. "The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Japanese Multinational Corporations," Discussion papers 19050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Bing Wang & Kung‐Cheng Ho & Xinyu Liu & Yan Gu, 2022. "Industry cash flow volatility and stock price crash risk," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 356-371, March.
    20. Maria Bas & Orsetta Causa, 2013. "Trade and product market policies in upstream sectors and productivity in downstream sectors: Firm-level evidence from China," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01297203, HAL.
    21. Xia, Yan & Kong, Yishu & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "Impacts of China-US trade conflicts on the energy sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    22. Escribano, Ana & Maggi, Mario, 2019. "Intersectoral default contagion: A multivariate Poisson autoregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 376-400.
    23. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    24. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    25. Fich, Eliezer M. & Shivdasani, Anil, 2007. "Financial fraud, director reputation, and shareholder wealth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 306-336, November.
    26. Yang, Wen & Lin, Dongtong & Yi, Zelong, 2017. "Impacts of the mass media effect on investor sentiment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-4.
    27. He, Feng & Lucey, Brian & Wang, Ziwei, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market -evidence from China-US trade conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    28. Fu, Tong & Chang, Dongfeng & Miao, Chenglin, 2022. "Fuel regulation in a developing country: An interventional perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    29. Qihang Xue & Huimin Wang & Caiquan Bai, 2023. "Local green finance policies and corporate ESG performance," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 721-749, December.
    30. Maria Bas & Orsetta Causa, 2012. "Trade and Product Market Policies in Upstream Sectors and Productivity in Downstream Sectors: Firm-Level Evidence from China," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 990, OECD Publishing.
    31. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha, 2015. "Monetary policy and stock prices – Cross-country evidence from cointegrated VAR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 254-265.
    32. Fu, Tong & Jian, Ze, 2021. "Corruption pays off: How environmental regulations promote corporate innovation in a developing country," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    33. Li, Wei & Lie, Erik, 2006. "Dividend changes and catering incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 293-308, May.
    34. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    35. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    36. Meixin Guo & Lin Lu & Liugang Sheng & Miaojie Yu, 2018. "The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 101-120, Winter/Sp.
    37. Chao Zhu & Yuwei Zhang, 2022. "Corporate philanthropic giving and nature of stock market reaction: Evidence from China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1651-1671, September.
    38. Gordon L. Clark & Dariusz Wójcik, 2005. "Financial Valuation of the German Model: The Negative Relationship Between Ownership Concentration and Stock Market Returns, 1997–2001," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 81(1), pages 11-29, January.
    39. Bas, Maria & Causa, Orsetta, 2013. "Trade and product market policies in upstream sectors and productivity in downstream sectors: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 843-862.
    40. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    41. Saqib Sharif & Hamish D. Anderson & Ben R. Marshall & Henk Berkman, 2014. "Against the tide: the commencement of short selling and margin trading in mainland China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(4), pages 1319-1355, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Bas & Åsa Johansson & Fabrice Murtin & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2016. "The effects of input tariffs on productivity: panel data evidence for OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 401-424, May.
    2. Beverelli, Cosimo & Fiorini, Matteo & Hoekman, Bernard, 2017. "Services trade policy and manufacturing productivity: The role of institutions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 166-182.
    3. Sai Ding & Puyang Sun & Wei Jiang, 2019. "The Effect of Foreign Entry Regulation on Downstream Productivity: Microeconomic Evidence from China," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 925-959, July.
    4. Fauziah Zen & Lili Yan Ing & Pyan Amin Muchtar & Muhammad Raihan Ramadhan & Sebastian Benz & Charles Christmann & Matteo Fiorini & Alexander Jaax, 2023. "Financial Services Trade Liberalisation in Indonesia: Policy Patterns and Economic Linkages," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2023-RPR-21 edited by Fauziah Zen & Lili Yan Ing & Matteo Fiorini, April.
    5. Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Timmis, 2017. "The Relationship Between Global Value Chains and Productivity," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 32, pages 61-83, Spring.
    6. Xu, Jin & Huang, Shoujun & Shi, Lu & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Trade conflicts and energy firms' market values: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Liang, Wenjing & Yu, Weihua & Yao, Xin, 2025. "Liberalization of upstream productive services and green innovation in downstream manufacturing firms: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Avdiu,Besart & Bagavathinathan,Karan Singh & Chaurey,Ritam & Nayyar,Gaurav, 2022. "India's Services Sector Growth : The Impact of Services Trade on Non-tradable Services," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10094, The World Bank.
    10. Maria Bas, 2013. "Does Services Liberalization Affect Manufacturing Firms' Export Performance? Evidence from India," Working Papers 2013-17, CEPII research center.
    11. Fida Karam & Chahir Zaki, 2020. "A new dawn for MENA firms: service trade liberalization for more competitive exports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 19-35, January.
    12. Geng Huang & Xi Lin & Shuying Xu & Junyu Wang & Ling‐Yun He, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty, export destination, and firm's pollution emissions: Analysis from theoretical perspective," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 2181-2189, June.
    13. Bas, Maria, 2020. "The effect of communication and energy services reform on manufacturing firms’ innovation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-362.
    14. Xinyu Hou & Yingying Shi & Puyang Sun, 2021. "Foreign Entry Liberalization And Export Quality: Evidence From China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 205-219, January.
    15. Huang, Geng & Lin, Xi & He, Ling-Yun, 2023. "Good for the environment? Foreign investment opening in service sector and firm's energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    16. Copestake, Alexander & Zhang, Wenzhang, 2023. "Inputs, networks and quality-upgrading: Evidence from China in India," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi & Yang, Chih-hai, 2020. "Liberalization for services FDI and export quality: Evidence from China," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    18. Wu, Feifei & Liu, Lei & Gao, Bo & Wu, Yanrui, 2025. "How services liberalization shapes functional specialization in developing countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Giuntella, Osea & Rieger, Matthias & Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2020. "Weight gains from trade in foods: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:46:y:2025:i:4:p:2206-2223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.