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Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market -evidence from China-US trade conflict

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  • He, Feng
  • Lucey, Brian
  • Wang, Ziwei

Abstract

We study the impact of international trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on equity markets. To capture the current tension in the relationship between China and the US, we use monthly stock market volatility and TPU indices of China and US from 2000 to 2019. By adopting a time-varying VAR model (TVP-SV-VAR), we find that TPU has heterogeneous effects on U.S. and China stock market. U.S. TPU has stronger impact on both U.S. and Chinese stock market. Time-varying characteristics show that U.S. - China trade conflicts have positive effect on U.S. stock market but a negative effect on Chinese stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Feng & Lucey, Brian & Wang, Ziwei, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and its impact on the stock market -evidence from China-US trade conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:40:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320309715
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101753
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    Cited by:

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    2. Vuong, Giang Thi Huong & Nguyen, Manh Huu & Huynh, Anh Ngoc Quang, 2022. "Volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to the U.S. stock market: The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    3. Yang, Baochen & Chen, Fengrui, 2023. "The financialization of nonfinancial companies in China: A macroeconomic perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    5. Lin, Xiaowei & Ding, Zijun & Chen, Aihua & Shi, Huaizhi, 2022. "Internal whistleblowing and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Jiahui Chen & Guangyu Nie, 2023. "Valuation Effects of US–China Trade Conflict: The Role of Institutional Investors," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(6), pages 56-78, November.
    7. Chen, Lin & Cheng, Chen, 2023. "Emigration and outward FDI in China: Key role of institutional quality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Chen, Yanhua & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "The U.S.-China trade conflict impacts on the Chinese and U.S. stock markets: A network-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    9. Kwame Asiam Addey & William Nganje, 2023. "The role of the U.S. exchange‐rate equity market volatility on agricultural exports and forecasts," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 25-47, March.
    10. Gu, Xin & Zhang, Weiqiang & Cheng, Sang, 2021. "How do investors in Chinese stock market react to external uncertainty? An event study to the Sino-US disputes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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