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Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs

  • Koop, Gary
  • Korobilis, Dimitris

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large timevarying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature and extend the TVP-VAR so that its dimension can change over time. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s) of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/317
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Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2012-14.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:317
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  1. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Paper Series 34_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  2. Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzales & Rodney W Strachan, 2011. "Time Varying Dimension Models," CAMA Working Papers 2011-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  7. A. Carriero & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/33, European University Institute.
  8. Gambetti, Luca & D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2010. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Working Paper Series 1167, European Central Bank.
  9. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gary M. Koop, 2013. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 177-203, 03.
  11. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
  12. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers 18467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 0603, European Central Bank.
  14. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  16. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  17. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  18. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 24-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  19. Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzales & Rodney W Strachan, 2011. "Time Varying Dimension Models," CAMA Working Papers 2011-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  20. Andrea Carriero & Todd Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Paper 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  21. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  22. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
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