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Time Varying Dimension Models

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Chan

    (Australian National University)

  • Gary Koop

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Rodney Strachan

    (The Australian National University)

Abstract

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US in?ation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2011. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Papers 1116, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mixture model; model change; Bayesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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