Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models
Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a change-point approach using Chib's (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state innovations, and for which the sampler of Gerlach, Carter and Kohn (2000) allows reliable and efficient inference. We show how this approach can be used to (i) model shifts in variance that occur independently of shifts in other parameters (ii) draw the break dates efficiently in change-point and regime-switching models with either Markov or non-Markov transition probabilities. We extend the proofs given in Carter and Kohn (1994) and in Gerlach, Carter and Kohn (2000) to state-space models with system matrices which are functions of lags of the dependent variables, and we further improve the algorithms in Gerlach, Carter and Kohn by introducing to the time series literature the concept of adaptive Metropolis-Hastings sampling for discrete latent variable models. We develop an easily implemented adative algorithm that promises to sizably reduce computing time in a variety of problems including mixture innovation, change-point, regime-switching, and outlier detection.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 26 (2008)
Issue (Month): (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.amstat.org/publications/index.html|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003.
"Inflation forecast uncertainty,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Nov 2001.
- Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schorfheide, Frank, 2000. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 441-450, June.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 179-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 14, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1034, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, "undated". "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
- David J. Nott & Robert Kohn, 2005. "Adaptive sampling for Bayesian variable selection," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(4), pages 747-763, December.
- Carter, C.K. & Kohn, R., "undated". "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time series with mixed spectra," Statistics Working Paper _005, Australian Graduate School of Management.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, 08.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Working Paper Series 17_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior elicitation in multiple change-point models," Staff Reports 197, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
- Giordani, P. & Kohn, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2005. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change and outliers," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "Inflation and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-45.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, July.
- J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
- J Huston McCulloch, 2000. "State-Space Times Series Modeling of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 00-11, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:26:y:2008:p:66-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.