Belief Distortions and Disagreement about Inflation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Stefano Fasani & Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni & Valeria Patella & Lorenza Rossi, 2024. "Belief Distortions and Disagreement about Inflation," Working Paper series 24-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised May 2025.
- Stefano Fasani & Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni & Valeria Patella & Lorenza Rossi, 2025. "Belief distortions and Disagreement about Inflation," Working Papers in Public Economics 256, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
References listed on IDEAS
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2021.
"Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2409-2437, September.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Staff Reports 847, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2021. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Working Paper Series 2542, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity," Liberty Street Economics 20180521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?," 2010 Meeting Papers 277, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007.
"Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 722, European Central Bank.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
- Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014.
"A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 638-647, October.
- Riccardo DiCecio & Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2010. "A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock," Working Papers 2005-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019.
"Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
- Christiane J.S. Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 24167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 6835, CESifo.
- Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2009.
"A Theory of Demand Shocks,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021.
"Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
- Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Working Papers 2020-16, Princeton University. Economics Department..
- José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2024.
"Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
- José-Elías Gallegos, 2023. "Inflation persistence, noisy information and the Phillips curve," Working Papers 2309, Banco de España.
- Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian & Kecht, Valentin & Lehmann, Robert, 2022.
"The diffusion of technological progress in ICT,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
- Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Valentin Kecht & Robert Lehmann, 2020. "The Diffusion of Technological Progress in ICT," CESifo Working Paper Series 8790, CESifo.
- George‐Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2018.
"Quantifying Confidence,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1689-1726, September.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2014. "Quantifying Confidence," NBER Working Papers 20807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dellas, Harris & Collard, Fabrice & Angeletos, George-Marios, 2015. "Quantifying Confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014.
"News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
- Portier, Franck & Beaudry, Paul, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 9624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot J. Muller, 2021.
"Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 905-921, December.
- Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot, 2013. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80009, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Müller, Gernot & Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael, 2016. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 11521, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Kleemann & Gernot Mueller & Zeno Enders, 2015. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," 2015 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot J., 2017. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," Discussion Papers 11/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot Müller, 2013. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4548, CESifo.
- Benhima, Kenza, 2019.
"Booms and busts with dispersed information,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 32-47.
- Kenza Benhima, 2013. "Booms and Busts with dispersed information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 13.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
- Kenza Benhima, 2014. "Booms and Busts with dispersed information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.15, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
- Benhima, Kenza, 2019. "Booms and Busts with Dispersed Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 13444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024.
"Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
- Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 339, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2023. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 23-A004, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2023. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Paper Series 2023-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022.
"Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
- Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not All Political Relation Shocks are Alike: Assessing the Impacts of US-China Tensions on the Oil Market," Post-Print hal-03737307, HAL.
- Yifei Cai & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers of BETA 2022-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers hal-04159797, HAL.
- Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," EconomiX Working Papers 2022-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Yifei Cai & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers 2022-07, CEPII research center.
- George-Marios Angeletos, 2018.
"Frictional Coordination,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
- George-Marios Angeletos, 2017. "Frictional Coordination," NBER Working Papers 24178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ho, Paul & Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2024.
"Averaging impulse responses using prediction pools,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2023. "Averaging Impulse Responses Using Prediction Pools," Working Paper 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Ferreira, Leonardo N., 2022.
"Forward guidance matters: Disentangling monetary policy shocks,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: disentangling monetary policy shocks," Working Papers Series 530, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 912, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Leonardo Melosi, 2017.
"Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
- Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Signaling effects of monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series WP-2016-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Aruoba, S. Borağan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2024.
"The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Working Papers 32623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aruoba, Boragan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2024. "The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices," CEPR Discussion Papers 19175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017.
"Disagreement and monetary policy,"
Discussion Papers
29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Elisabeth Falck & Mathias Hoffmann & Patrick Hürtgen, 2018. "Disagreement and Monetary Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2312.06402, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
- Johan Brannlund & Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2022. "Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?," Staff Working Papers 22-52, Bank of Canada.
- Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023.
"Oil shocks and investor attention,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.
- Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2022. "Oil shocks and investor attention," Working Paper series 22-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
More about this item
Keywords
Inflation; Belief Distortion Shock; Inflation Disagreement; Households Expectation; Machine Learning; Local Projections; New Keynesian model; Monetary Policy; ZLB;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2025-06-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2025-06-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2025-06-09 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:423478673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Motta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delanuk.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.