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Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market

Author

Listed:
  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yifei Cai
  • Jamel Saadaoui

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers hal-04159797, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04159797
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04159797v1
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    2. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Liu, Ling & Shahrour, Mohamad H. & Wojewodzki, Michal & Rohani, Alireza, 2025. "Decoding energy market turbulence: A TVP-VAR connectedness analysis of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk shocks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Cai, Yifei & Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "Evaluating time-varying granger causality between US-China political relation changes and China stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    5. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Asymmetries in the oil market: accounting for the growing role of China through quantile regressions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    6. Yin, Libo & Cao, Hong & Guo, Yumei, 2024. "The information content of Shanghai crude oil futures vs WTI benchmark: Evidence from temporal and spatial dimensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Yahua & Wu, Yanrui & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-149.
    9. Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 2024.13, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    10. Cai, Yifei, 2025. "US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    11. Afonso, António & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Li, Sitong & Chen, Huangen & Chen, Gengxuan, 2025. "The US-China tension and fossil fuel energy price volatility relationship," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Cai, Yifei & Chang, Hao-Wen & Xiang, Feiyun & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "Can precious metals hedge the risks of Sino–US political relation?–Evidence from Toda–Yamamoto causality test in quantiles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    14. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," Working Papers hal-04159825, HAL.
    15. Coën, Alain & Desfleurs, Aurélie, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of REITs returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Vatsa, Puneet & Baek, Jungho, 2023. "Asymmetric influence of oil demand and supply shocks on meat commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating or Following the Flag or both?," MPRA Paper 124152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Guo, Xiaozhu & Hong, Yanran & Yao, Shibin & Hao, Yixue, 2025. "Oil supply and U.S.-China tensions: A multinational perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    19. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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