IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v149y2025ics0140988325006474.html

US partisan conflict, Sino-US political relation news, and oil market dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Yifei
  • Saadaoui, Jamel
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads to a drop in the political relations news index, a decrease in oil demand, and an increase in oil prices. When the political relations news index rises, it significantly reduces oil demand and prices, with only minor effects on oil supply. The study also finds that negative political news shocks have a more significant impact on the oil market compared to positive news shocks, leading to lower oil prices and demand. These findings suggest important policy considerations for managing the impacts of political news on the oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yifei & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2025. "US partisan conflict, Sino-US political relation news, and oil market dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325006474
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108820
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325006474
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108820?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. A. John & N. R. Draper, 1980. "An Alternative Family of Transformations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 190-197, June.
    2. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    3. Joshua A. Schwartz & Dominic Tierney, 2025. "Us and Them: Foreign Threat and Domestic Polarization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 69(2-3), pages 352-380, March.
    4. Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui & Yanrui Wu, 2024. "Political relations and trade: New evidence from Australia, China, and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(3), pages 253-275, July.
    5. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    6. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    8. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2010. "When It Cannot Get Better or Worse: The Asymmetric Impact of Good and Bad News on Bond Returns in Expansions and Recessions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 119-155.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    10. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Influential factors in crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 77-88.
    11. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of news through uncertainty," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 74-98, January.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. repec:aen:journl:ej40-si1-dagoumas is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Nilavongse, Rachatar & Rubaszek, Michał, & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks, economic activity, and exchange rate adjustments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    16. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    18. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    19. Guo, Peng & Shi, Jing, 2024. "Geopolitical risks, investor sentiment and industry stock market volatility in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    21. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    22. Yang, Cai & Zhang, Hongwei & Qin, Yun & Niu, Zibo, 2024. "Partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and the energy market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    23. Theodosios Perifanis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2019. "Living in an Era when Market Fundamentals Determine Crude Oil Price," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1_suppl), pages 317-336, June.
    24. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    25. Du, Yingxin & Ju, Jiandong & Ramirez, Carlos D. & Yao, Xi, 2017. "Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990–2013," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 211-225.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nehir Balci & Mesut Dogan, 2026. "Quantile connectedness between Russia’s MOEX, geopolitical risks, US–China tensions, and oil prices," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1-37, April.
    2. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating or Following the Flag or both?," MPRA Paper 124152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Guo, Xiaozhu & Hong, Yanran & Yao, Shibin & Hao, Yixue, 2025. "Oil supply and U.S.-China tensions: A multinational perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Yifei, 2025. "US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    2. Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Yahua & Wu, Yanrui & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-149.
    3. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating or Following the Flag or both?," MPRA Paper 124152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Afonso, António & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Cai, Yifei & Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "Evaluating time-varying granger causality between US-China political relation changes and China stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    9. Liu, Yanqiong & Guo, Yaoqi & Wei, Qing, 2024. "Time-varying and multi-scale analysis of copper price influencing factors based on LASSO and EMD methods," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Asymmetries in the oil market: accounting for the growing role of China through quantile regressions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    11. Mollick, André Varella, 2025. "Risk, uncertainty, world business cycles, and the U.S. stock-oil relationship," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    12. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2022. "US partisan conflict shocks and international stock market returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2817-2854, December.
    13. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Geopolitical Turning Points and Oil Price Responses: An IV-LP Approach," MPRA Paper 125586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and energy market tail risk forecasting: An explainable machine learning approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    15. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong & Wen, Danyan, 2023. "The predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben, 2023. "Investigating the dynamics of crude oil and clean energy markets in times of geopolitical tensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Ben Jabeur, Sami & Boubaker, Sabri & Carmona, Pedro & Stef, Nicolae, 2025. "How do environmental concerns and global economic conditions affect energy prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    18. SHANG, Yunfeng & XIA, Zhongwei & XIAO, Zhongyi & SHUM, Wai Yan, 2024. "An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    19. Yang, Cai & Zhang, Hongwei & Qin, Yun & Niu, Zibo, 2024. "Partisan conflict, trade policy uncertainty, and the energy market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Liu, Jiahao & Zhu, Bo & Hu, Xin, 2024. "Systemic risk spillovers among global energy firms: Does geopolitical risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325006474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.