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US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy

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  • Cai, Yifei

Abstract

Using a SVAR model, I examine the causal relationship between Sino-US political tensions, global supply chains pressure and global economic conditions. The impacts of structural US-China political tensions and global supply chains pressure shocks vary across different proxies of global economic conditions. It is recommended to use multiple variables to measure global economic activity for robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yifei, 2025. "US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s016517652500120x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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    17. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220104, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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