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US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy

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  • Cai, Yifei

Abstract

Using a SVAR model, I examine the causal relationship between Sino-US political tensions, global supply chains pressure and global economic conditions. The impacts of structural US-China political tensions and global supply chains pressure shocks vary across different proxies of global economic conditions. It is recommended to use multiple variables to measure global economic activity for robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yifei, 2025. "US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s016517652500120x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112283
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sino-US tensions; Global supply chains pressure; World industrial production; Global real economic activity; Global economic conditions; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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