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US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy

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  • Cai, Yifei

Abstract

Using a SVAR model, I examine the causal relationship between Sino-US political tensions, global supply chains pressure and global economic conditions. The impacts of structural US-China political tensions and global supply chains pressure shocks vary across different proxies of global economic conditions. It is recommended to use multiple variables to measure global economic activity for robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yifei, 2025. "US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s016517652500120x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Liu, Jian & Chen, Chaoqiang & Mao, Xiaodan, 2025. "Risk spillover effect and portfolio strategy between Chinese commodity futures market and international green finance market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Zheng, Qingying & Wu, Jintao & Lin, Boqiang, 2026. "Asymmetric volatility spillover between clean energy and nonferrous metal markets under climate risks: Portfolio hedging implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Gago, Joana & Vale, Sofia, 2025. "Oil price swings and inflationary echoes: The impact of oil market shocks on consumer and producer prices in Europe and the U.S," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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