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Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy

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  • Ascari, Guido
  • Bonam, Dennis
  • Smadu, Andra

Abstract

How should policymakers respond to the recent surge in inflation? This paper examines the impact of global supply chain pressures on euro area inflation and the implications for monetary policy. Results from a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model show that shocks to global supply chain pressures were the dominant driver of euro area inflation in 2022, and that these shocks have a highly persistent and hump-shaped impact on inflation. Furthermore, a two country New Keynesian model with international trade in intermediate goods shows that the optimal monetary policy response to global-supply-induced inflation is a non-linear function of the degree of global value chain participation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:142:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103029
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Global supply chain pressures; Optimal monetary policy; Phillips curve; Vector autoregression; Bayesian techniques; DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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