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International inflation spillovers through input linkages

Author

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  • Raphael Auer
  • Andrei A Levchenko
  • Philip Sauré

Abstract

We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Our main finding is that across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We report three additional findings: (i) the results are similar when allowing for imperfect cost pass-through and demand complementarities; (ii) PPI synchronization across countries is driven primarily by common sectoral shocks and input-output linkages amplify co-movement primarily by propagating sectoral shocks; and (iii) the observed pattern of international input use preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of disinflation and high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Auer & Andrei A Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International inflation spillovers through input linkages," BIS Working Papers 623, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:623
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo.
    4. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 7-42, December.
    5. Rita Cappariello & Sebastian Franco-Bedoya & Vanessa Gunnella & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2020. "Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects," CEP Discussion Papers dp1682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Aleksei Kiselev & Aleksandra Zhivaykina, 2019. "The role of global relative price changes in international comovement of inflation," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps53, Bank of Russia.
    7. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    8. Nadine Baudot-Trajtenberg & Itamar Caspi, 2018. "Measuring the importance of global factors in determining inflation in Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 183-208, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Robert C. Johnson, 2018. "Measuring Global Value Chains," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 207-236, August.
    10. Imura, Yuko & Shukayev, Malik, 2019. "The extensive margin of trade and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 417-441.
    11. Shang-Jin Wei & Yinxi Xie, 2018. "The Wedge of the Century: Understanding a Divergence between CPI and PPI Inflation Measures," NBER Working Papers 24319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wei, Shang-Jin & Xie, Yinxi, 2020. "Monetary policy in an era of global supply chains," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    15. Patrick Blagrave, 2019. "Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect," IMF Working Papers 19/147, International Monetary Fund.
    16. N. Melisa Bilgin & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Producer Price Inflation Connectedness and Input-Output Networks," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1813, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international inflation synchronization; globalisation; inflation; input linkages; monetary policy; global value chain; production structure; input-output linkages; supply chain;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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