IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/snb/snbwpa/2014-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Anton Auer
  • Aaron Mehrotra

Abstract

Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that both producer price and consumer price inflation rates move more closely together between those Asian economies that trade more with one another, ie that share a higher degree of trade intensity. Next, using a novel data set based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), we examine the importance of the supply chain for cross-border price spillovers at the sectoral level. We document the increasing importance of imported intermediate inputs for economies in the Asia-Pacific region and examine the impact on domestic producer prices of changes in costs of imported intermediate inputs. Our results suggest that real integration through the supply chain matters for domestic price dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Anton Auer & Aaron Mehrotra, 2014. "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific," Working Papers 2014-05, Swiss National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2014-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2014_05/source/working_paper_2014_05.n.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    3. Richard Baldwin & Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015. "Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1682-1721, November.
    4. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    5. Dario Fauceglia & Anirudh Shingal & Martin Wermelinger, 2014. "Natural Hedging of Exchange Rate Risk: The Role of Imported Input Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 261-296, December.
    6. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
    7. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    8. Anna Lipínska & Stephen Millard, 2012. "Tailwinds and Headwinds: How Does Growth in the BRICs Affect Inflation in the G-7?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 227-266, March.
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    10. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
    11. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    12. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2004. "Intermediaries in Entrepot Trade: Hong Kong Re-Exports of Chinese Goods," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 3-35, March.
    13. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
    14. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2013. "Fragmentation, incomes and jobs: an analysis of European competitiveness," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 28(76), pages 613-661, October.
    15. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
    16. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Milani, Fabio, 2009. "Does global slack matter more than domestic slack in determining U.S. inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 147-151, March.
    18. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database; An Update," IMF Working Papers 12/163, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Marcel Timmer & Abdul A. Erumban & Reitze Gouma & Bart Los & Umed Temurshoev & Gaaitzen J. de Vries & I–aki Arto & Valeria Andreoni AurŽlien Genty & Frederik Neuwahl & JosŽ M. Rueda?Cantuche & Joseph , 2012. "The World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods," IIDE Discussion Papers 20120401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    21. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    22. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
    24. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Michael B. Devereux & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "State Dependent Pricing And Business Cycle Asymmetries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 281-310, February.
    26. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, "undated". "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    27. Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 160-180, February.
    28. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    29. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    30. Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1998. "Globalization and U.S. inflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 21-33.
    31. Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala, 2009. "The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 101-120, February.
    32. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    33. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Auer, Raphael & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Globalization and inflation in Europe," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    35. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, "undated". "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    36. Hirakata, Naohisa & Iwasaki, Yuto & Kawai, Masahiro, 2014. "Emerging Economies' Supply Shocks and Japan's Price Deflation: International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model," ADBI Working Papers 459, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    37. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    38. Naohisa Hirakata & Yuto Iwasaki & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Emerging Economies’ Supply Shocks and Japan’s Price Deflation : International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23970, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    39. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.
    40. Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2010. "The Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates: Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and Trade Exposure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 392-407, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. DiGabriele, Jim & Ojo, Marianne, 2017. "The Efficiency Wage Hypothesis and monetary policy channels of transmission: developments and progress of Basel III leverage ratios," MPRA Paper 82824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chengsi Zhang & Ke Song & Fang Wang, 2015. "Economic Globalization and Inflation in China: A Multivariate Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 79-96, May.
    3. Auer, Raphael A. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2016. "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 60-77.
    4. JaeBin Ahn & Chang-Gui Park & Chanho Park, 2016. "Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Domestic Producer Prices: Evidence from Sector-Level Data," Working Papers 2016-2, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    5. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," Working Papers 2017-03, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    7. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2017. "Investigating first-stage exchange rate pass-through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2611-2638, December.
    8. Raphael Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains," BIS Working Papers 602, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    10. Chen, Hongyi & Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2016. "The diffusion and dynamics of producer prices, deflationary pressure across Asian countries, and the role of China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    12. Raphael Auer & Aaron Mehrotra, 2014. "Real globalisation and price spillovers in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 81-89 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. JaeBin Ahn & Chang-Gui Park & Chanho Park, 2016. "Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Domestic Producer Prices; Evidence from Sector-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 16/23, International Monetary Fund.
    14. DiGabriele, Jim & Ojo, Marianne, 2017. "The efficiency wage hypothesis and the role of corporate governance in firm performance," MPRA Paper 80710, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    globalisation; inflation; Asian manufacturing supply chain; price spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2014-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Enzo Rossi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/snbgvch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.