Tailwinds and Headwinds: How Does Growth in the BRICs Affect Inflation in the G-7?
In this paper, we analyze the impact of a persistent productivity increase in a set of countries—which we think of as the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC)—on inflation in their trading partners, the Group of Seven (G-7). In particular, we want to understand the conditions under which this shock can lead to tailwinds or headwinds in the economies of trading partners. We build a three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which there are two oil-importing countries (home and foreign) and one oilexporting country. In our benchmark calibration, we find that the tailwind effect, lowering inflation in the home economy, dominates the headwind effect. However, if the oil demand elasticity is low (equal to the empirical short-run estimate) or the labor market is flexible, inflation at home rises in the subsequent periods as a result of the foreign productivity shock.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2006.
"Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand,"
NBER Working Papers
12530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
- Christopher Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2006. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," Working Papers 625, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008.
"Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy,"
0802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomics Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 08/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001.
"Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, 02.
- Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008. "Price stability with imperfect financial integration," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2007.
"Oil shocks and external adjustment,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
897, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2007.
"Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition,"
in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition," Staff Reports 324, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: the Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Working Papers 13556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Fabio Ghironi, 2000.
"Interest Rate Rules for Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
468, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Oct 2003.
- Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2007. "Interest rate rules for fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2196-2211, July.
- Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:1:a:11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.