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Tailwinds and Headwinds: How Does Growth in the BRICs Affect Inflation in the G-7?

  • Anna Lipínska

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Stephen Millard

    (Bank of England and Durham Business School)

In this paper, we analyze the impact of a persistent productivity increase in a set of countries—which we think of as the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC)—on inflation in their trading partners, the Group of Seven (G-7). In particular, we want to understand the conditions under which this shock can lead to tailwinds or headwinds in the economies of trading partners. We build a three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which there are two oil-importing countries (home and foreign) and one oilexporting country. In our benchmark calibration, we find that the tailwind effect, lowering inflation in the home economy, dominates the headwind effect. However, if the oil demand elasticity is low (equal to the empirical short-run estimate) or the labor market is flexible, inflation at home rises in the subsequent periods as a result of the foreign productivity shock.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 227-266

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:1:a:11
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  1. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  2. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
  3. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
  4. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 0802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2008. "Price stability with imperfect financial integration," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Globalization and inflation dynamics: the impact of increased competition," Staff Reports 324, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
  8. Alessia Campolmi, 2009. "Oil price shocks: Demand vs Supply in a two-country," 2009 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2007. "Interest rate rules for fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2196-2211, July.
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