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Tailwinds from the East: how has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?

Listed author(s):
  • Lewis, John

    ()

    (Bank of England)

  • Saleheen, Jumana

    ()

    (Bank of England)

This paper quantifies the effect of the rising share of imports from emerging market economies (EMEs) on import price inflation in the United Kingdom. It does so using a panel regression approach that accounts for heterogeneity across industries. The key finding is that the rise in China’s import share between 1999 and 2011 is estimated to have lowered UK import price inflation by around 0.5 percentage points per year over the same period – we call this the ‘tailwind from China’. Rising imports from other EME country groups are not found to have any significant impact. Our approach allows us to go further and say that two thirds of the China tailwind arises from the direct impact of importers ‘switching’ to lower cost Chinese goods; the remaining third comes from other exporters lowering their prices in response to strong competition from China. We find no evidence that higher inflation rates in EMEs have so far reduced or reversed the sign of the tailwind yet.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 506.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 22 Aug 2014
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0506
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  1. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2010. "The pro-competitive effect of imports from China: an analysis of firm-level price data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 737, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Hummels, David L. & Schaur, Georg, 2010. "Hedging price volatility using fast transport," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 15-25, September.
  3. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
  4. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
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  8. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
  9. Anna Lipínska & Stephen Millard, 2012. "Tailwinds and Headwinds: How Does Growth in the BRICs Affect Inflation in the G-7?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 227-266, March.
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  13. Alessandro Calza, 2009. "Globalization, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps: Evidence from the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 301-320, December.
  14. Luke B Willard & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 06/36, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Nigel Pain & Isabell Koske & Marte Sollie, 2008. "Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-32.
  16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 187-196, 02.
  17. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2010. "Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 343-375, Winter.
  18. Steven B. Kamin & Mario Marazzi & John W. Schindler, 2006. "The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 179-201, May.
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