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Globalization, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps: Evidence from the Euro Area

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  • Alessandro Calza

Abstract

This paper tests whether the proposition that globalization has led to greater sensitivity of domestic inflation to the global output gap (the ‘global output gap hypothesis’) holds for the euro area. The empirical analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1979–2003. Measures of the global output gap using two different weighting schemes (based on purchasing power parities and trade data) are considered. We find limited evidence that global capacity constraints have explanatory power for domestic consumer price inflation in the euro area. Based on these findings, the prescription that central banks should specifically react to developments in global output gaps does not seem to be justified for the euro area.

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  • Alessandro Calza, 2009. "Globalization, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps: Evidence from the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 301-320, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:12:y:2009:i:3:p:301-320
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2009.01248.x
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    2. Carlos A. Medel & Michael Pedersen & Pablo M. Pincheira, 2016. "The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 120-146, June.
    3. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106.
    4. Chengsi Zhang & Ke Song & Fang Wang, 2015. "Economic Globalization and Inflation in China: A Multivariate Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 79-96, May.
    5. Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.
    6. Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2014. "The Non-Monetary Side of the Global Disinflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 337-371, April.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    8. Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2015. "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 406-433, April.
    9. Malte Rieth, 2015. "Can Central Banks Successfully Lean against Global Headwinds?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 88, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    11. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Gantungalag Altansukh & Ralf Becker & George Bratsiotis & Denise R. Osborn, 2018. "Structural Breaks in International Inflation Linkages for OECD Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 240, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Lewis, John & Saleheen, Jumana, 2014. "Tailwinds from the East: how has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?," Bank of England working papers 506, Bank of England.
    14. Sandeep Mazumder, 2017. "The Impact of Globalization on Inflation in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 41-60, September.
    15. Syed Kanwar Abbas, 2018. "Global slack hypothesis: evidence from China, India and Pakistan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 593-627, March.
    16. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
    17. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    18. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    19. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    20. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    21. Lei Lv & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2019. "Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: Evidence from the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    22. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    23. Çiçek, Serkan, 2012. "Globalization and flattening of Phillips Curve in Turkey between 1987 and 2007," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1655-1661.
    24. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.

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