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Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation

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  • Nigel Pain
  • Isabell Koske
  • Marte Sollie

Abstract

Over the past 25 years inflation has moderated considerably in all OECD economies. At the same time, the production of many goods and services has become increasingly internationalised and the level of trade between the OECD and non-OECD economies has risen markedly. This paper investigates the extent to which the observed changes in the inflation process can be attributed to the increasing integration of non-OECD economies into the global economy. The results of the analysis show that i) import prices have become a more important driver of domestic consumer prices since the mid-1990s; ii) the sensitivity of inflation to domestic economic conditions has declined whereas the sensitivity to foreign economic conditions has risen, working through import prices; and iii) the strong GDP growth in the non-OECD economies over the past five years has contributed to the growth of real oil and metals prices. A scenario analysis shows that globalisation has put upward pressure on inflation via higher commodity prices and downward pressure via lower non-commodity import prices with the latter effect having dominated in most OECD economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Pain & Isabell Koske & Marte Sollie, 2008. "Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecokac:5kzmw7mqdl0v
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-v2008-art4-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    2. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-32.
    3. Jonathan Kearns, 2016. "Global inflation forecasts," BIS Working Papers 582, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Rainer Masera, 2016. "Elementi per una rilettura dell’articolo di Paolo Sylos Labini: “Inflazione, disoccupazione e banca centrale: temi per una riconsiderazione critica” (Notes on Paolo Sylos Labini’s “Inflation, unemploy," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 69(273), pages 121-134.
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Predicting US CPI-Inflation in the presence of asymmetries, persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroscedasticity," Working Papers 026, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    6. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mujahid, Nooreen & Ali, Amjad, 2013. "Impact of Financial Development and Globalization on Inflation: The Role of Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 51675, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Nov 2013.
    8. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    9. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    10. Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2016. "Inflation dynamics and inflation expectations in Thailand," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 349-360 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    12. Moses Tule & Afees A. Salisu & Charles Chimeke, 2018. "You are what you eat: The role of oil price in Nigeria inflation forecast," Working Papers 040, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    13. Lewis, John & Saleheen, Jumana, 2014. "Tailwinds from the East: how has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?," Bank of England working papers 506, Bank of England.
    14. repec:pal:buseco:v:52:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s11369-017-0035-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Predicting US Inflation: Evidence from a New Approach," Working Papers 039, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    16. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "(When) does money growth help to predict Euro-area inflation at low frequencies?," Discussion Papers 2013/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

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