IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure,and Industry Dynamics in Europe

  • Raphael Anton Auer
  • Kathrin Degen
  • Andreas M. Fischer

What is the impact of import competition from low-wage countries (LWCs) on inflationary pressure in Europe? This paper examines whether labor-intensive exports from emerging Europe, Asia, and other global regions have a uniform impact on producer prices in Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In a panel covering 110 (4-digit) NACE industries from 1995 to 2008, instrumental variable estimations predict that LWC import competition is associated with strong price effects. More specifically, when LWC exporters capture 1% of European market share, producer prices decrease by about 3%. In contrast, no effect is present for import competition from low-wage countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Next, decomposing the mechanisms that underlie the LWC price effect on European industry, we show that import competition has a pronounced effect on average productivity and only a muted effect on wages. Owing to the exit of firms and the increase in productivity, LWC import competition is shown to have substantially reduced employment in the European manufacturing sector.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2011_09/source/working_paper_2011_09.n.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2011-09.

as
in new window

Length: 66 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2011-09
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Börsenstrasse 15, P. O. Box, CH - 8022 Zürich

Phone: +41 44 631 31 11
Fax: +41 44 631 39 11
Web page: http://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/research/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jing Zhang & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2011. "The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications," 2011 Meeting Papers 302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Development Working Papers 201, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
  3. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jane E. Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah J. Lindner & Jaime R. Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Martin, Julien & Méjean, Isabelle, 2011. "Low-Wage Countries' Competition, Reallocation Across Firms and the Quality Content of Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 8231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Arnaud Costinot & Lindsay Oldenski & James Rauch, 2011. "Adaptation and the Boundary of Multinational Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 298-308, February.
  7. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2005. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity; Evidence from Indonesia," IMF Working Papers 05/146, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2010. "Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 51-84, March.
  9. Paula Bustos, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Exports, and Technology Upgrading: Evidence on the Impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 304-40, February.
  10. Wheeler, Tracy, 2008. "Has trade with China affected UK inflation?," Discussion Papers 22, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  11. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," CEP Discussion Papers dp0584, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. Natalie Chen & Jean Imbs & Andrew Scott, 2006. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Working Paper Research 91, National Bank of Belgium.
  13. Nigel Pain & Isabell Koske & Marte Sollie, 2006. "Globalisation and Inflation in the OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 524, OECD Publishing.
  14. Davis, D.R. & Weinstein, D.E., 1999. "An Account of Global Factor Trade," Working Papers 435, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  15. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
  16. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," NBER Working Papers 18054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Raphael Anton Auer & Raphael S. Schoenle, 2012. "Market Structure and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 2012-14, Swiss National Bank.
  18. Amit Khandelwal, 2009. "The Long and Short (of) Quality Ladders," NBER Working Papers 15178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. James B. Bullard, 2012. "Global output gaps: wave of the future?," Speech 195, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  20. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2011. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," CEP Discussion Papers dp1000, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  21. Andrew Bernard & Stephen Redding & Peter Schott, 2009. "Multi-Product Firms and Trade Liberalization," Working Papers 09-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  22. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q3-131-1 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
  24. Machin, S. & Van Reenen, J., 1997. "Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries," Papers 24, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
  25. José De Gregorio, 2008. "The Tensions of the World Economy," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 27, Central Bank of Chile.
  26. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-Market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1998-2031, December.
  27. Carmen Diaz-Mora, 2008. "What factors determine the outsourcing intensity? A dynamic panel data approach for manufacturing industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2509-2521.
  28. Gamber, Edward N & Hung, Juann H, 2001. "Has the Rise in Globalization Reduced U.S. Inflation in the 1990s?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 58-73, January.
  29. repec:fip:fedlps:y:2012:i:march28 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  31. Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1998. "Globalization and U.S. inflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 21-33.
  32. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 961-87, December.
  33. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2010. "The pro-competitive effect of imports from China: an analysis of firm-level price data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 737, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  34. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  35. John Romalis, 2004. "Factor Proportions and the Structure of Commodity Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 67-97, March.
  36. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
  37. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24–43.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2011-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Enzo Rossi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.