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Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices

  • Eugenio Gaiotti

    (Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Italy)

The flattening of the Phillips curve observed in the industrial countries has been attributed to globalization, in contrast with the traditional explanation centered on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive. This paper argues that recourse to micro data is needed to identify whether changes in the slope of the Phillips curve are structural. Taking advantage of a unique data set including about 2,000 Italian firms, the paper tests whether a change in the link between capacity utilization and prices is confirmed at the company level and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed to foreign competition. The answer is either inconclusive or negative in all cases. The results do not lend support to the view that the flattening of the Phillips curve is due to globalization.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 51-84

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2010:q:1:a:3
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  1. Matteo Bugamelli, 2007. "Export prices, product quality and firms' characteristic: An analisys on a sample of Italian firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 634, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  13. Gaiotti, Eugenio, 2008. "Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices," MPRA Paper 8389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  17. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
  18. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Online Appendix to "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle"," Technical Appendices 09-191, Review of Economic Dynamics.
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