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Optimal adjustment paths in a monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

Adjustment to an external imbalance is more difficult within a monetary union if wages are sticky. Periods of high unemployment are usually necessary to achieve the required real depreciation (internal devaluation). Gradual adjustment is usually recommended to distribute the output and employment cost over time. This paper takes into account that gradual adjustment also has a cost in terms higher current account deficits and thus a higher debt, and ultimately higher debt service costs. We calculate the optimal path/speed of price and wage adjustment in terms of deeper parameters like the slope of the Phillips curve, the degree of openness, etc. Gradual adjustment is not always optimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2016. "Optimal adjustment paths in a monetary union," ROME Working Papers 201604, ROME Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Milone, Luciano Marcello, 2020. "Structural Reforms in the European Union: What is New after the Crisis?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 351-372.
    2. Belke Ansgar, 2018. "Secular Stagnation, Unemployment Hysteresis and Monetary Policy in EMU: Scratches but Not Scars?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Greece and the Troika – Lessons from International Best Practice Cases of Successful Price (and Wage) Adjustment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 177-195, December.
    4. Mitali Das, 2023. "Probabilistic assessment of external sustainability in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(1), pages 5-29, January.
    5. Cyrille Lenoël & Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young, 2023. "Greece 2010–18: What Could Have Been Done Differently?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 281-315, April.
    6. Fabian Lindner, 2018. "Changes of the price level and the nominal exchange rate can have quite different impacts on the trade balance," IMK Working Paper 191-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Greece and the Troika � Lessons from international best practice cases of successful price (and wage) adjustment," CEPS Papers 12557, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    8. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    9. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    speed of adjustment; price and wage adjustment; internal devaluation; policy complementarities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • P11 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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